Six key seats most at risk of changing hands election night
Algal Bloom impacts could turn the tide on a school of coastal seats in Saturday’s election with pundits also watching the impact of disruptive contenders fighting to ride a wave of discontent. See if your area is one to watch on election night.
This Saturday, polls will close on a state election with a record playing field of 388 candidates, with over 21,000 votes already placed in the first three hours of early voting on the weekend, according to the electoral commission.
As the campaign enters its final week, some seats are likely to be closely watching news of a four-month delay in updating health advice around the toxic algal bloom to be revealed by Four Corners on Monday.
When independent pollster DemosAU asked voters in February what they thought of the government’s handling of the algal bloom, 38 per cent said it was unsatisfactory, 38 per cent felt neutral, and 24 per cent found it satisfactory.
DemosAU head of research George Hansonakis told InDaily that while the heat on the algal bloom had cooled off since last year, the issue could still hold water in metropolitan coastal seats.
Black
Though considered a safe Labor seat, the biggest drawcard to the seat of Black is the returning bid of disgraced former Liberal leader David Speirs, who was convicted for supplying cocaine to two people in 2025.
The seat covers the southern suburbs from Seacliff to Hallett Cove and its current member is Labor’s Alex Dighton, who won the by-election to replace Speirs in November 2024 with a swing of almost 10 per cent. It switched the margin to 9.9 per cent for Labor.
Ex-Liberal leader Speirs – who now says he’s sober – believes he has a pathway to victory, with the first policy he announced before formally throwing his hat in the ring being a 29-page algal bloom recovery plan.
Speirs was recently backed by his opponent Jennifer Game from Sarah Game’s Fair Go for Australia party, who is preferencing him second. But he is up against both Labor and Liberal parties preferencing him last.
Bragg
Liberal MP Jack Batty holds Bragg on a margin of 8.2 per cent – the strongest on this list – but DemosAU’s Hansonakis believed Batty was fighting a growing Labor tide in Adelaide.
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His Labor opponent in law professor Rick Sarre has garnered support from one of the state’s wealthiest entrepreneurs, Sam Shahin – known for owning The Bend motorsport park – who rolled up to a door stop in a bright-coloured sports car to show support.
Meanwhile, Batty polled a net negative popularity rating of 12 per cent in recent DemosAu polling, with 60 per cent of polled voters having a neutral view of him, 26 per cent negative and 14 per cent positive.
Hasanakos said the existing margin was “the best thing Batty has got going for him”.
“If he can turn on the charm and campaign well locally, then he can hold it,” Hasanakos said.
Colton
Colton is one of the seats Hansonakis said could be affected by memories of months where locals could not walk their dogs on the local beach because of the algal bloom.
The seat covers the western coastal suburbs from part of Grange to West Beach and includes areas around Kidman Park and Adelaide Airport.
Liberal Bec Sutton is trying to fill the shoes of retiring member Matt Cowdrey, who has held the seat since 2018, now with a margin of 4.8 per cent.
But Sutton is up against a Labor legacy in Aria Bolkus, daughter of former senator Nick Bolkus.
Bolkus has flanked Premier Peter Malinauskas and Deputy Premier Kyam Maher at multiple announcements in the west, including at a recent pledge for free public schools.
Dunstan
Hansonakis said Liberal candidate Anna Finizio could be “the Liberals’ best asset” to take a city seat after a knife-edge by-election in 2024 caused by former Liberal Premier Steven Marshall retiring from state parliament after the party’s 2022 election defeat.
“For somebody who was the candidate before, she’s been working hard, she’s basically not stopped her campaign since the by-election…that’s the best thing they have going for them,” Hansonakis said.
“But that being said, the overall state picture is a swing away from the Liberals so it’s still going to be tough for Anna Finizio but she’s given herself the best possible chance.”
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Dunstan covers inner eastern suburbs including Norwood, Kent Town, Kensington Gardens and Marden.
The seat is currently held by Labor’s Cressida O’Hanlon on a slim margin of 0.8 per cent after an ugly by-election marred by a leaked job application and a hyper-partisan approach to campaigning.
Finizio picked up the largest share of total first preference votes in the 2024 by-election but when preferences flowed to Labor, she lost the spot.
Greens candidate Christel Mex is also drawing attention in Dunstan, in part for what Greens leader Robert Simms called her “unique name” and her high-profile locally as a Norwood, Payneham and St Peters councillor.
Finniss
Liberal shadow environment minister David Basham hangs onto Finniss by a slim margin of 0.7 per cent, striking distance for independent candidate Lou Nicholson.
The former blue-ribbon regional seat of Finniss – covering Goolwa through Middleton – saw Nicholson pick up a majority after preferences at all but one polling booth in 2022.
Nicholson said the 2022 result showed she was a serious alternative, especially when it came to the top issues of public transport and healthcare she was hearing about on the doors.
“I wish I had a crystal ball. I think every candidate does. But I know my community are very keen to see change and the support I’m hearing when I’m door-knocking has been incredibly encouraging,” Nicholson said.
Interestingly, Nicholson posted a picture of herself meeting with Labor Premier Peter Malinauskas in her campaigning earlier in March.
Finniss, along with the Adelaide Hills seats of Hammond and Kavel, is a key reason Hansanakos said the SA Liberals’ opposition status is more fragile than ever.
Heyson
The Greens have Heysen – which covers the leafy suburbs south of the Princess Highway, including Stirling and Willunga Hill – firmly in the party’s sights, and Liberal deputy leader Josh Teague is battling a net negative popularity rating to keep his seat.
Greens Leader Robert Simms said Heysen was the party’s best shot at winning a lower house seat, with Greens candidate Genevieve Dawson-Scott. The Greens have thrown much attention at the seat, with Federal Greens Senator Sarah Hanson-Young campaigning at pre-polls with Dawson-Scott over the weekend.
Teague holds Heysen on a 2.6 per cent margin, and when voters were polled by DemosAus and Ace Strategies in February, had 60 per cent feeling “neutral”, 27 per cent negative and 13 per cent positive.
But Hansonakis said a high neutral score did not mean a candidate should be written off.
“Usually, what happens is candidates or leaders with low expectations can shine in an election campaign, and they could save the furniture,” he said.
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