Exclusive polling reveals battle for Libs to hold Opposition status
New state election polling reveals the Liberals’ battle to clutch onto the Opposition bench will be fought in the regions where some surprise players are fighting to upend the party.
The SA Liberals opposition status is more fragile than ever, according to independent pollster DemosAU’s research head George Hasanakos.
Hasanakos said that exclusive polling from DemosAU/Ace Strategies showed that for the first time, who takes opposition might not be clear-cut on election night.
The latest poll – which surveyed 1070 South Australians on their views via internet panels from January 31 to February 16, 2025 – had One Nation inching ahead of the Liberals by only one per cent, with eight per cent of voters saying they would vote for other candidates or minor parties.
“On these results, we will see Labor re-elected very easily, and the interesting contest will instead be whether the Liberals or One Nation reach second place,” Hasanakos said.
“All of the Liberals metro seats are at risk to Labor. If the Liberals cannot resist the Labor tide in Adelaide then control of the Opposition benches will be decided in regional SA.”
Hasanakos said that as Labor gains ground on primaries, the size of the Lower House opposition will largely depend on preferences flowing between the Liberals and One Nation.
“Usually [the opposition] is not up in the air,” Hasanakos said.
“But if the Liberals are down to just a handful of seats, and One Nation could have more than them, well, they are a registered political party, so they’re the opposition, but what about the independents?”
He said independents like Alexandrina councillor Lou Nicholson’s tilt against the Liberals David Basham in the marginal seat of Finniss, Murray Bridge deputy mayor Airlie Keen’s battle for the Adelaide Hills seat of Hammond held by the Liberal’s Adrian Pederick and the sitting independent Dan Cregan now backing independent Matt Schulz in Kavel could change things in the lower house.
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Especially, Hasanakos said, because One Nation “hasn’t been terribly good at retaining their MPs”.
“That is a big asterisk against how well [One Nation] is doing across the country because they can elect all their MPs, and then they get upset and leave.
“Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, but you can’t deny that that is what has happened in the past.”
Sarah Game – who is not up for re-election this year – was the first One Nation member elected in South Australia’s Upper House in 2022, but controversially left the party in 2025. She has now started her own party, Fair Go for Australians.
Hasanakos said, depending on the flow of preferences, it was “not out of the realm of possibility” that South Australia could have a unique opposition coalition incorporating independents.
But he said it would require independents to agree to a coalition of sorts, and would depend on the speaker allowing it to happen.
South Aussies are more confident One Nation could govern than Libs
The poll showed 24 per cent of South Australians believed One Nation was ready to govern compared to only 19 per cent believing the Liberals were ready to govern.
Hasanakos said it was “one of the more surprising results” in the data.
“To see a party that has never held a lower house seat in South Australia outrank a party that held government as recently as 2022 on this measure, will astonish many,” he said.
Regional seats with key indie players
Finniss, Hammond and Kavel were some key seats Hasanakos pointed to with independent contenders that could shake up the lower house.
In Kavel, independent Matt Schulz is vying for retiring independent and former Liberal Dan Cregan’s seat – with Cregan’s endorsement.
Schulz said he “would be happy to support and work with” other independents in parliament who are value-aligned with him.
“I believe many independent candidates share similar values and ambitions because they are directly connected and involved with their local communities,” he said.
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When asked about being approached for preference deals, Schulz said he had not entered into any and would not consider it until the formal nomination process closes on March 2.
“I’m open to discussing preferences with parties and other candidates; preferences are part of the election process,” he said.
Schulz said his electorate “has been neglected by both major parties for much of its existence” and there was a strong appetite for independents, given the seat’s federal electorate of Mayo is also held by an independent, Rebekah Sharkie.
“I believe many independent candidates share similar values and ambitions because they are directly connected and involved with their local communities,” he said.
Nearby in Hammond – the electorate covering Murray Bridge and surrounds – Airlie Keen, Cregan’s office manager who also worked for former premier John Olsen, is hoping to take the marginal seat from Liberal Adrian Pederick.
Keen ran in 2022 with the aim to make Hammond marginal and have the major parties take notice, which she said “we did, and they are” with the margin now slimmer at 5.1 per cent.
Keen told InDaily she has declined all approaches about preference deals, “keeping at arm’s length and running my own race”.
“There’s a sense that we’re on the cusp of a generational shift from a safe seat model to hard-working, active independents, so there is that sense of excitement in the community,” she said.
Keen and independent Lou Nicholson – who is taking on Liberal David Basham’s seat of Finniss – know each other and both advocated for electoral law reform in 2022.
Nicholson is hoping to better her 2022 election result – when she won a majority after preferences at all but one polling place on election day.
“When I ran in 2022, our community recognised that I was a serious alternative to the Liberal candidate and I think that just came down to the strong grassroots campaign that I ran,” Nicholson told InDaily.
When asked if she would link up with other independents to form opposition if independents outnumber Liberals in the lower house, she said “the make up of the parliament is something to consider after the polls are counted”.
“If I am privileged to be elected by my community, I know they will expect me to hold government to account and I will approach that thoughtfully and strategically.”
Who votes for who?
The DemoAU/Ace Strategies poll also found that the Labor vote was lowest among 18-34 year-olds compared to other age groups, at 35 per cent.
The 18-34 year old cohort was the most likely to vote for the Greens. Meanwhile, the Liberals were most popular among people who were educated at TAFE, and owned their homes rather than had a mortgage or rented.
One Nation was more popular among males than females, but was least popular among university-educated voters. Other candidates – which included independents – picked up the most votes from people over 55.
The DemosAU/Ace Strategies polls surveyed 1070 South Australians on their views via internet panels from January 31 to February 16, 2025, with an effective margin of error of 3.6 per cent each way.
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