Mali’s path to Prime Minister?
‘The SA Premier is always one step ahead of the PM’. Mike Smithson reveals the federal seat most likely to have Malinauskas’ name on it.
It’s looming as a now-or-never moment for Peter Malinauskas, but he will stay resolute that he’s staying put in SA.
Speculation of him being lured to Canberra is mounting by the day and he largely has himself to blame if he’s unhappy with the constant coffee group chatter.
He may deny such a move until the cows come home, but once the Mali move gains enough momentum it will develop a life of its own.
As stated previously in InDaily, it could appear as if he’s been using the national stage as an unofficial audition to move into federal politics and, perhaps, all the way to the Lodge.
So, what’s the most predictable path to that end?
The federal seat of Adelaide is there for the taking.
Labor veteran Steve Georganas has served the electorate with distinction since 2019 and prior to that he represented the now-defunct Hindmarsh seat on-and-off since 2004.
Every time I bump into the Adelaide MP, I cheekily ask him when he’ll be stepping aside for “Mr Mali” to move in.
There is always a smile but never a definitive answer, as that moment probably won’t be entirely of his choosing.
For the Premier to contest and, no doubt, win Adelaide would be a jewel in the crown for the Labor Party.
There’s something special about the name of the state’s capital also adorning every piece of federal paraphernalia linked to an up and comer on a national stage.
The Premier’s predictable, but bold, foray into the immigration debate, with its perceived attack on Anthony Albanese and Labor’s Left, was just part of his ongoing positioning behind the scenes.
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He has nothing to lose in the perception stakes that he’s fighting One Nation and Pauline Hanson on a sensitive topic that his federal colleagues appear to be gun shy about.
The Premier’s ultimate defence, when accused of being out of step with the PM, is that he’s preparing for a skills shortage in SA and nothing will stop his quest to fill the rapidly emerging employment black hole.
The PM would likely prefer for the Premier to butt out but also knows he shouldn’t be holding his breath.
Malinauskas is always one step ahead of Albanese and most others in Canberra.
Just look at SA’s pre-emptive strike on a world leading social media ban for under 16s.
He also stole the show at the Labor’s national conference in Adelaide, and that was no accident.
So, what would be the perfect timing for Peter Malinauskas to change course from state to federal politics?
The next federal election is in 2028 which, on current predictions and barring a One Nation winner-takes-all result which is still unlikely, Labor should win in a doddle.
The Premier is 46 years old now, which in the scheme of things, is still relatively young to run the country.
It’s unlikely Albanese would happily step aside before then, unless his personal polling goes further down the gurgler.
But Malinauskas still has three and a half years to serve as Premier in this state.
If federal Labor sees his shining light here to illuminate the political path across the country for years to come, it will relocate him without a moment’s hesitation.
Labor should easily win the next SA election with or without Malinauskas in the top job.
What he will want to avoid, if he moves to Canberra, is any possibility of languishing in Opposition for three years.
Given his success in the last two SA election results, landing on the other side of parliament in Opposition is simply not in his DNA.
A win for Labor in 2028, which is before the next state election in 2030, would provide him with the ideal steppingstone and timeframe with little downside.
If he crossed over via a federal by-election, it allows him time to transition without uproar because Labor is a shoo-in here anyway.
It’s likely he would need to serve a Ministerial apprenticeship before moving into the top job.
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Logistically, he could run the nation from his Adelaide base, more so than leaders in the past who were based in the east.
In today’s high-tech world, he can technically operate largely online with the only exceptions being sitting weeks in Canberra and overseas public relations missions.
Arguably it wouldn’t add too much extra to his current and frenetic political agenda.
He may encounter fierce factional battles to win a leadership ballot.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers and Deputy PM Richard Marles may have something to say about their leadership aspirations being cut short and find the current speculation both distracting and annoying.
But Malinauskas is a person who knows his mind and doesn’t get intimidated by any bullying tactics from the eastern states.
So, what else has he got going for him?
His mentor, Senator Don Farrell, has been instrumental across Mali’s career all the way back to discovering his talents in the SDA (Shop, Distributive and Allied Employee’s Association), or, more simply, the powerful Shoppies union.
Never underestimate Farrell’s influence at any level within the Labor Party.
I’m certain the two Right-faction allies would have discussed the possibility more than once.
If the Premier needed cross-faction support in his home state, Health Minister Mark Butler and Foreign Affairs Minister Penny Wong could become very handy.
New national Labor Party president Kate Ellis also hails from SA and is a close friend of Malinauskas.
Further afield, he’s closely aligned with NSW Premier Chris Minns who’s also a good friend of his.
If we’re trying to read the tea leaves and speculate even further, a departure from the Premier’s office last week could be significant.
His media and communications director Adam Todd has been with Malinauskas through thick and thin for almost a decade.
Todd is now chucking in that pivotal role to work as senior strategic communications manager for the AFL where he’s had intimate-knowledge dealings during Gather Round negotiations.
Does Todd know something about the future which makes him think this is the perfect timing for a major career change?
Yes, that is a long bow.
Of course, this is all fanciful speculation which the government will shoot down in flames.
Until it doesn’t.
Mike Smithson is weekend newsreader and political analyst for 7News.
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