Bin fodder: Garrett and his AUKUS inquiry
Mike Smithson argues the federal government will thank the commissioners in Midnight Oil frontman Peter Garrett’s inquiry and then file its copy in the nearest bin.
When Adelaide became the epicentre of a public inquiry into the AUKUS submarine project it was certain that sparks would fly.
Midnight Oil band frontman and former Labor Environment Minister Peter Garrett was the ideal person to take centre stage by storm and sing from the rooftops about his grave fears and the “extreme risks” regarding this $368 billion dollar project.
In some respects, I share his concerns which are likely to linger long after Garrett or I have left this earth when the fifth nuclear powered sub is delivered in 2054.
The chances of today’s technology still being useful in three decades’ time and beyond are fanciful.
The first domestically built AUKUS sub is due to roll off the Osborne production line in 2042, but that already seems unlikely as these mammoth projects rarely run on time or on budget.
Garrett is an activist with considerable gravitas.
His so-called independent inquiry features a galaxy of fellow commissioners including a former Labor premier and a former Chief of the Australian Defence Force.
But was Garrett the right person to lead the publicly funded probe or sell a believable and unbiased message?
His views on many issues, including in song, could signal that an inquiry decision is already a done deal before even hearing all the evidence.
It’s unlikely Garrett would ever give US forces the nod however critical AUKUS might be for the nation’s security and South Australia’s economy.
There are just as many arguments for the project as there are against it.
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Engineers of the future will certainly benefit and if the billions are to be spent, as is now the unstoppable trajectory of the project, it’s better for the money to flow into SA than elsewhere.
Former Senator Rex Patrick told the inquiry that AUKUS will bankrupt the country.
Similar soundings were made before we embarked on the eyewatering cost of the Collins class submarines back in the 1980s.
They were considered by some as a doubtfully prudent national investment but, funnily enough, they’re still part of our front line sovereign defence.
The truth is that no-one knows what will unfold nationally or globally as the decades roll by.
The full benefits of AUKUS might be just as prominent on land as they are under the sea.
In the heat of battle between those voicing their concerns or support for the monumental project during the Adelaide hearing, I thought part-time Acting Premier Tom Koutsantonis offered the most logical argument.
He says the Australian people have spoken through various political changes of government since the deal was first struck.
Three world leaders who shook hands on the AUKUS deal have all ridden off into the political sunset, but the deal, in essence, remains intact.
“The Australian people have spoken,” Koutsantonis said.
“I think that disregarding the democratic mandate, sends a lot of signals to people about what the anti-AUKUS agenda is all about.”
Although a fan of Garrett’s musical genius, Koutsantonis is far less favourable to his pre-determined AUKUS agenda.
That’s despite both coming from the same side of politics from state and federal levels.
“The point to this inquiry is activism, it’s not information seeking,” the Acting Premier said.
“It’s not impartial, it’s not independently run, it’s a show trial and South Australians know that.
“Peter Garrett is beloved in Australia. He’s an amazing artist with amazing music which has defined generations.
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“But we also know what his agenda is. It’s openly biased against this project, and he’s entitled to have his views,
“But let’s not pretend that this is anything other than a biased attempt to build animosity or public opinion against AUKUS.”
They were fighting words from a political veteran who loves speaking his mind and enjoyed his brief time in the sun with Peter Malinauskus on annual leave.
It seems hard to argue against the economic virtues for this state and that’s clearly what successive SA governments will do all the way to 2057 when the next generation of submarines begins.
They will roll off the production line every three years after that.
In the cold light of realism, Australia’s national defence against a menacing Chinese presence in the region is an obvious and growing need.
I foresee generations of young South Australians embedded in the AUKUS program and spinoff defence advancements in the following decades.
It’s like the brainpower of a young breed of US scientists who successfully launched the Apollo 11 mission and others to the moon and returned them to earth.
No current politician here wants to let that opportunity slip past or to look a federal gift horse in the mouth.
If the project was to be scrapped at this point, the howls of despair would be louder than those voicing current concerns.
Other inquiries, or even a Royal Commission, are likely to surround the ongoing future of AUKUS.
Are there other emerging warnings signs such as last month’s five-billion-pound UK commitment to develop drone warfare, which eventually might sidetrack their AUKUS promise, or the changed US obligation to provide us with secondhand interim Virginia class submarines?
Dealing with nuclear waste will be the next problem to be tackled here, but I dare say a regional Australian community will step forward to accept it with a financial reward and massive safeguards promised.
The final report from the current public inquiry is due for release in late October.
The federal government will thank the commissioners for their efforts and then promptly file its copy in the nearest bin.
My views still waver from support to skepticism without being able to fully comprehend the totality of the project.
At the back of my mind, I still consider a looming threat from unwelcome invaders to our shores as a problem that we can’t ignore.
AUKUS mightn’t be perfect, but for now, it’s the best we’ve got as a roadmap for peace of mind, at the very least.
Mike Smithson is weekend newsreader and political analyst for 7News.
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