Smithson: Ley’s sneak SA visit a ‘move over chaps’ moment for Libs
Besieged federal Liberal Leader Sussan Ley’s quiet SA appearance has Mike Smithson warning locals can fight Labor on their point-of-difference female leader. But only if their national counterparts stay away.
SA Liberals must be looking nervously at leadership tensions within their federal ranks as we dive headlong into the election campaign.
Sussan Ley is a “dead woman walking” if the most informed commentators are getting the correct information from their political contacts leaking at the front line.
The mere fact that Angus Taylor and Andrew Hastie are all but nominating themselves to fill the position before it’s on offer can only be regarded as both being poised over Ley’s political coffin with a hammer and one last nail.
It will be a damaging look from a leadership gender perspective.
Ley was widely touted as a breath of fresh air, being the first woman in federal history to lead the Liberals and the coalition after the disastrous loss at last year’s federal election.
With it now blatantly obvious she won’t even survive her first 12 months in the top job, the Libs will emerge as a desperate rabble defaulting to the old boys’ club.
Still, some see her surviving, but that’s more a case of blind faith than pragmatism.
How things can drastically change in a couple of weeks.
Less than a fortnight ago Ley snuck into SA for a local campaign appearance which included a visit to the Adelaide Holocaust Museum for a meeting with Jewish community leader Norman Schueler.
It was without fanfare and in the company of loyal Liberal foot soldier Senator Anne Ruston.
The media wasn’t invited, but a key contact gave me a drop on the timing of her visit and a 7News camera was there.
It was a golden opportunity for Ley to dump on Anthony Albanese for his so-called lack of apology over the Bondi atrocity and his haste to rush through new anti-hate speech and firearm law reform.
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But she spoke politely with only a dignified passing reference to what she really thought about the PM’s actions.
Now the Coalition is in tatters as is her leadership, and the rest is history.
But the public perception does little to assist new state Liberal leader Ashton Hurn.
She also replaced a traditionally suited Liberal, namely Vincent Tarzia.
Hurn, standing alongside Ley on the same visit, sent a clear message to voters.
Move over chaps, females are now the driving force of Liberal leadership with an alternative path to the future.
Hurn is as safe as houses until at least March 21.
She’s already articulating Liberal policy with new style, flair and gravitas.
There are no potential challengers waiting in the wings and God help them if they were to get in Hurn’s way.
But if the state Liberals are wiped off the map come the third Saturday in March, Hurn’s standing may suffer a severe setback.
As is happening in Canberra, conservative powerbrokers may look to replace her, being a moderate, and rebuild the party along their preferred lines.
But if the worst-case scenario unfolds on election day the hard heads will have precious few contenders to choose from, and if Hurn loses her seat of Schubert there will be almost nothing left anyway.
But the state Liberals have a bad habit of allowing veteran Liberal women to slip over the horizon and disappear.
I clearly remember when Isobel Redmond popped her head above the parapet in 2009 and nominated for the leadership which had been vacated by Martin Hamilton-Smith.
It was brought on by two bizarre and complicated leadership spills in which Hamilton-Smith didn’t consider his closely contested winning result against Vickie Chapman was enough for long-term survival.
Hamilton-Smith withdrew from a second leadership ballot only days later.
Redmond defeated Chapman 13 votes to 9 to create history and become SA’s first female Liberal leader.
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But in a party lacking in prominent females, it was a wasted opportunity.
The taking of one female scalp, led to another female rising through the ranks.
So, a net-zero gain to any female leadership domination at a pivotal time.
Redmond rang me before she launched her public sales pitch for leadership and asked for my opinion.
I advised her to give it a miss as I was certain it would eventually end in tears, with her becoming bitter and twisted.
On January 31, 2013, it did end, but with only a few metaphorical tears, as she was just glad to go.
As for the bitter and twisted bit, Redmond barely spoke to me or many others in the media for years to come.
Civility has now happily returned.
I sincerely believe Redmond was a good leader who succumbed to the traditional Liberal curse.
She’d contested an election as opposition leader but was defeated by Jay Weatherill in 2010.
It was a contest which only returned 18 of 47 seats to the Libs and launched her into more stormy seas ahead.
Vickie Chapman hung around and could also have been a leader of significance.
Her major hurdle was the ever-present factional family feud between hers and the conservative Evans’ family.
She served as deputy under Iain Evans, but those on the inside and outside always knew this would never be a political marriage made in heaven, more likely in the other direction.
By comparison Labor has never had a female party leader and, still, no one is knocking on the door.
Labor’s heaviest hitters in cabinet are all males, made even more pronounced by the departure of former deputy leader Susan Close.
Female ministers still have a voice but, usually, the Malinauskas, Maher or Koutsantonis trio appears to be the public-facing gate keeper ready to steady the ship, if necessary.
That’s where the Liberals now have a point of difference.
Hurn is the safe pair of hands who knows the ropes with a clear delivery of message.
Her campaigning dilemma is now whether she’ll seek or want any federal assistance.
Sussan Ley may look the part but will be an unwanted distraction until her time is up.
Angus Taylor and, to a lesser degree Hastie, will look like the crusty blokes trying to prop up a young mum, which is far from the reality.
My advice to her is, say “thanks but no thanks” and politely suggest they stay in Canberra.
Out-of-sight is a useful out-of-mind for SA voters when it comes to the current crop of federal Liberals.
Mike Smithson is weekend newsreader and political analyst for 7News.
