Various public opinion polls show the Liberal Party copping an absolute pasting at the state election which is now within a fortnight.

I still can’t see any winning streak for the Hurn-led Libs, but I can see green shoots emerging.

I’ve now adjusted and fine-tuned my result prediction based on election experience, incumbency, gut feel and an adage which was echoed by former Liberal Prime Minister, and wily politician, John Winston Howard.

“Nothing is ever as good or as bad as it seems.”

Labor’s been justifiably dented this week by a bungled email scandal trying to discredit a grieving widow who went public over ambulance ramping.

Her terminally ill husband died in the RAH after waiting outside for more than an hour.

Labor got it horribly wrong by distributing a glowing 2023 email over health care from a person they thought was Stephen King her husband, but it was another person with the same name.

It was a grubby tactic dressed up as showing “total transparency” to the media but has damaged Labor’s brand.

The Liberals, by their own accounts, have been told they’ll plummet to as few as three out of 47 seats in the House of Assembly where government is formed.

That dire polling eventually led to Vincent Tarzia falling on his sword as leader.

They currently hold 13 seats compared to Labor’s 29 with four independents and one vacant seat, due to the jailing of an MP.

For what it’s worth, here’s my updated prediction, which is subject to a hefty margin of error, but I’ll stick with it.

For the past month I’ve said the Liberals will emerge from the election with eight seats, rather than the zero, one, two or three which some others have claimed.

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I’ve now amended that to 11 seats after studying the form guide and pounding parts of the campaign trail with both major party leaders.

Make no mistake, that would still be a bad result for the Liberals and almost certainly consign them to at least the next two terms in opposition, but it’s better than an utter annihilation.

My calculations were made before the email blunder.

In essence, Labor should hold all its current 29 seats but increase the tally to 32.

I’m one of the few who don’t see One Nation winning a single seat in the lower house but they are likely to have a major influence with preferences.

Cory Bernardi and perhaps one other appear likely to win Upper House positions.

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I also don’t see independent candidate David Speirs troubling the scorers in Black which Labor won in a historic by-election.

Black presents as the only realistic Labor loss.

I suspect the four seats now held by independents will remain the same in quantity but in a different configuration.

So, here’s my theory.

With a record number of 388 lower house candidates, ballot papers in some electorates will appear just a blur of names and boxes to the average voter.

If they’re not rusted on supporters to any party, which is the case for many voters, it’s likely they will put their number one in the box of a name they recognise.

That’s where incumbency is crucial, or in other words, voting for the candidate who’s already the sitting MP.

In fields of up to 11 candidates, unprepared people can panic when casting a vote, especially when there’s a queue forming behind them.

From personal experience, they often go for what’s quickest and easiest.

In my opinion, Labor will pick up three additional seats without even trying.

Morialta, in the eastern foothills, will fall with the retirement of Liberal veteran John Gardner, as well as Unley, where David Pisoni has also gone.

In Colton, Labor’s Aria Bolkus has worked the seaside electorate hard and has a familiar family ring being daughter of the late- Senator Nick Bolkus, whose name is extremely well known in the west.

It’s made even easier with Liberal Matt Cowdrey departing the political scene.

In coming to my Liberal theory of 11 rather than eight seats, it takes many variables into account.

If they’ve already lost these three seats before they start, I reckon Finniss encompassing Victor Habor will also fall to independent Lou Nicholson.

So, we’re now four seats down the gurgler from their current 13.

The Libs should recover Mt Gambier after former member, turned disaffected independent MP, Troy Bell fell off the radar as he cools his heels in prison after being convicted of theft and fraud charges.

Voters in neighbouring MacKillop now have the tough decision to stick with home-detentioned independent Nick McBride or not, as he faces domestic violence charges which he refutes.

My thought is that they handsomely elected him as a Liberal in 2018 and again in 2022, and despite his profile, good or bad, will elect the new Liberal candidate, Rebekah Rosser.

So, two of the currently held independent seats go back into the Liberal column but are countered by Nicholson in Finniss.

Narrunga and Stuart will stay with independents Fraser Ellis and Geoff Brock.

I also suspect Mount Barker-based Kavel will remain independent or turn Green with the retirement of Dan Cregan.

Federally, Rebekha Sharkie has already set the independent tone in the hills for a decade with her Xenophon-inspired Centre Alliance party.

There are still plenty of seats at play for the Liberals which would fall in a heartbeat if there’s a uniform and predicted swing of six per cent across SA to Labor.

I originally had another three Liberal seats turning red, but have changed my mind, by giving the Libs some generous benefit of the doubt.

Incumbency and confusion over the number of candidates on offer could save Hartley, Morphett and Hammond.

I had Vincent Tarzia as a down-and-out in Hartley, but I also wiped him off the map eight years ago against Xenophon.

Voters know Tarzia and keep returning him to office.

Many may even have sympathy after his departure as leader.

Fellow Liberals Stephen Patterson in Morphett and Adrian Pederick in Hammond also get my tick for re-election, but only by a whisker.

And something tells me that seemingly under-siege Liberals Sam Telfer in Flinders on the west coast, with a 20.3 per cent margin, and Penny Pratt in mid-north Ngadjuri (on 3.2 per cent) will also keep their seats after the fright of their lives.

So, what’s changed in my recalculations?

The Libs can thank Ashton Hurn for any good fortune they have retained.

Her positive image is resonating and cutting through with relentless campaigning and via the media.

Potentially swinging Liberal voters probably like what they see coming off a horrible period of instability.

Her mixture of maturity and trust worthiness is a golden asset in politics and she’s using it well, partly after a little coaxing in my recent InDaily column where I urged her to get her hands dirty (for picture opportunities).

If John Howard’s theory is correct, this prediction will be close to the mark, but no-one knows until the votes are counted and that will make for a fascinating election night.

Mike Smithson is weekend newsreader and political analyst for 7News.