Big bank, real estate site tip when Aussie house prices will bottom
The heads of Australia’s biggest mortgage lender and a major property listings website have revealed when they think the nation’s housing market correction will end.
House prices are likely to continue to fall in the coming months, Australia’s largest residential and commercial property listings site says.
REA Group’s outlook is similar to the nation’s biggest home loan lender, Commonwealth Bank.
Chief executive Matt Comyn said this week he doesn’t expect the housing market to bottom out until well into 2027.
CommBank economists continue to predict house prices to fall by nine per cent in this downturn, driven by four interest rate rises this year, and after the federal government tightened tax benefits around negative gearing and capital gains in this year’s budget.
The biggest factor contributing to the uncertainty in the property market is the prospect of higher interest rates, REA boss Cameron McIntyre said on Thursday.
Future house price falls are likely over the coming months as last month’s interest rate rise, the tax changes and the cumulative impact of higher borrowing costs weigh on buyer demand,” he told shareholders at an annual meeting.
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“However, resilient employment, limited forced selling and homeowner equity buffers, along with ongoing constrained supply, should put a floor under the falls we see,” he said.
The central bank last week raised the key cash interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.60 per cent – the highest level in 15 years.
That prompted all the major banks to pass on the increase to customers, with variable interest home loans now attracting rates of about eight per cent per annum.
CommBank expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to hold off on further rate rises this year, although it cautions that the prospect of a November hike remains a possibility.
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“I think clearly that will be a live decision that will be revisited,” Comyn told ABC radio.
The bank’s economists still think that Australia is at, or close to, the peak of the rate hike cycle, with cuts to come next year.
“We continue to expect two rate cuts in late 2027,” economist Lucinda Jerogin said in a recent research note.
National property values fell 1.1 per cent in September, taking the total decline since the March peak to 5.2 per cent, according to Cotality data released last week.
The median dwelling value dropped to $899,236 – essentially back to where it was 12 months ago.
Market watchers say it could take time for buyers to be persuaded they are paying the right price given the backdrop of higher interest rates and falling values.
-with AAP
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