Exclusive polling results reveal surprise election players
Exclusive state election polling reveals just how many seats One Nation is likely to pick up in the upper house, and a shock finding for one major party. See who is polling best.
One Nation would claim at least two seats, but independents could shake things up, with Family First and Stephen Pallaras standing out in the latest data compiled in exclusive results revealed to InDaily from a DemosAU/Ace Strategies Poll.
The independent political polling shows little traction for the SA Liberals in the upper house, with results showing the key party led by Ashton Hurn stands to gain one Upper House seat, the party relying on preferences for a second. Four Liberals are up for re-election in the upper house with four members continuing, so the party would still hold onto its Opposition status.
Family First party – which has focused on cost of living in campaigning so far, and has Deepa Mathew as lead candidate – would win four per cent of the vote if the election were held today, following the Greens on 11 per cent, Liberals 15 per cent, One Nation’s 21 per cent and Labor’s 38 per cent.
DemosAU head of research George Hasanakos predicted that overall on the polling, the Legislative Council Chamber would end up with nine to 10 Labor members, six Liberals, two to three One Nation, one to two Greens, Sarah Game and up to three seats in doubt.
But Hasanakos believed there was the “X Factor” of Chris McDermott running for Sarah Game’s Fair Go for Australia party and SA Best’s Connie Bonaros that had not been captured in the numbers and could “shake things up”.
Hasanakos said that Bonaros – the only SA Best member in parliament after Frank Pangallo left the party in 2023 – could still perform well given she had served two terms and that SA Best “does have cachet in the South Australian community”.
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And one newcomer – former SA Director of Public Prosecutions Stephen Pallaras – stood out above some existing members.
“Stephen Pallaras, because he’s put his name in the party name, so we’ve polled on him twice, and he has two per cent, doing better than some other parties and even some sitting legislative council members,” Hasanakos said.
“We’re seeing a huge swing to One Nation, they’re up 16.8 per cent since the last election and the Liberals are down 19.3 per cent.
“On these figures we could see One Nation win at least two seats in the Upper House with a chance of a third.
“Meanwhile, the Liberal Party would need to rely on preferences to win a second seat, after winning four at the last election.”
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The respected pollster surveyed 1070 South Australians on their views via internet panels from January 31 to February 16, 2025, with an effective margin of error of 3.6 per cent each way.
A swing to One Nation in the polling results would see state leader Cory Bernardi pick up a seat, along with One Nation’s state president Carlos Quaremba and a potential third.
It’s a spike since the independent pollsters’ October results that showed the SA Liberal Party leading One Nation. Since then, a federal Liberal leadership spill, Bernardi announcing a One Nation candidate in every SA seat and the Premier addressing One Nation as an opponent have changed the tone just a month out from polling day.
Polling partner Ace Strategies managing director Matt Neagle – a former ministerial adviser to former Liberal Leader and then Weatherill Labor Government Independent Minister Martin Hamilton-Smith – said the poll “confirms that the Liberals are struggling to reconnect with voters at the very moment they need to demonstrate readiness to govern”.
“One Nation overtaking the Liberals on primary vote would have been unthinkable a few years ago,” Neagle said.
“It speaks to a deep disruption in the centre‑right vote and a level of volatility that will reshape the campaign from here.”
Hasanakos said the polling was conducted before independent Tammy Franks announced she would run again, and that Franks could be another independent to influence the result.
Franks has chosen outspoken algal bloom ecologist Faith Coleman as a running mate, but polling on key issues has seen concern decline about the harmful algal bloom ravaging the state’s coastline.
In October, six per cent of voters rated the algal bloom as a top issue, but in February, only two per cent ranked it highly.
“In terms of the algal bloom now, it seems the heat in the issue seems to come off a bit based on our issue polling, and while the government is still under water in terms of perceptions, they seem to have improved,” Hasanakos said.
InDaily and the South Australian Council of Social Services and Uniting Communities are hosting a panel featuring upper house hopefuls Labor incumbent Kyam Maher, SA Best incumbent Connie Bonaros, Independent incumbent Tammy Franks, Liberal incumbent Michelle Lensink, Greens candidate Melanie Selwood, and Fair Go candidate Chris McDermott at a Legislative Council called Balancing Power, at The Exchange on Wednesday, February 25.
