Opposition leader Vincent Tarzia would lose his seat if the election were held today, with the SA Liberals facing a wipeout in all its metropolitan seats, according to data compiled in a DemosAU/Ace Strategies Poll.

The respected pollster surveyed 1,006 South Australians on their views and was conducted via internal panel from October 6 to 15, 2025, with an effective margin of error of 3.9 per cent each way.

The independent political polling showed little traction for the SA Liberals as the March 2026 state election loomed, with Premier Peter Malinauskas listed as preferred premier by 58 per cent of voters compared to Tarzia’s 19 per cent, while 23 per cent said they “don’t know”.

South Australian Labor was predicted to trounce Tarzia’s party by 66 to 34 per cent on a two-party preferred basis, in what DemosAU head of research George Hasanakos said was one of the most lopsided voting intention polls seen in Australia in recent times.

Polling showed an 11.47 per cent swing to Labor since the March 2022 state election, with the Liberal’s 21 per cent on voting day now down by 14.7 per cent since the last election.

Under its current leadership, Labor would win 47 per cent of votes in the Lower House, the Liberals 21 per cent, The Greens 13 per cent and other candidates 19 per cent. The percentages excluded undecided voters.

“The vote for Labor is staggering but when you dig further beyond Malinauskas’s personal popularity, there are several high-profile issues where voters rank the government poorly – including housing, cost of living, hospital ramping and the algal bloom,” said Hasanakos.

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Hasanakos said the current dynamic could be attributed to Malinauskas’s personal popularity still being “sky high” and the Liberals having not yet shaken off internal instability.

“This is keeping Labor’s vote sky high. Should these factors recede then it’s quite possible to see a significant correction back to a more competitive contest, but the Liberals are running out of time to turn it around,” he said.

“If this poll was reflected at the election based on a uniform swing, the Liberals would be reduced to a rural rump of three to six seats.”

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Voting Intention – Lower House

Question: If a State Election for South Australia was held today, which one of the following would you vote for?

In the Upper House, Labor would gain 37 per cent of seats, the Liberals 17 per cent, Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 12 per cent and The Greens 11 per cent. The percentages also excluded undecided voters.

All other parties registered below five per cent, with Jing Lee – Better Community polling a worrying zero per cent.

Despite polling projecting that Labor would win the most seats in the Upper House with four, it was unlikely to have a majority, with the Liberals picking up two, One Nation one seat, The Greens one, and three seats remaining in doubt.

Voting Intention – Upper House

If a State Election for South Australia was held today, which on of the following would you vote for in the Legislative Council (Upper House)?

How do different demographics vote?

Men were more likely to vote Labor with 51 per cent choosing the party compared to 43 per cent of women.

Some 18 per cent of women said they would vote for The Greens, compared to just seven per cent of men. This was only two per cent behind the percentage of women who said they would vote for the Liberals at 20 per cent.

Older South Australians were more likely to vote Liberals with 31 per cent of over 55s choosing the party, compared to 46 per cent who preferred Labor.

South Australians in the 35-54 age category were the most likely to vote Labor with 55 per cent intending to vote for the party.

Young South Australians were least likely to vote Liberal with only 13 per cent of 18- to 34-year-olds saying they would vote for the party, compared to 42 per cent who said they would vote for Labor and 29 per cent for The Greens.

Ace Strategies Managing Director Matt Neagle – a former ministerial adviser to former Liberal Leader and then Weatherill Labor Government Independent Minister Martin Hamilton-Smith – said numbers showed the Liberal brand was failing to register with young voters.

“Among voters aged 18-34 years, the Liberal primary vote is in the cellar at 13 per cent, with The Greens attracting 29 per cent. That suggests a social media disconnect and lack of credibility on environmental issues,” Neagle, who commissioned the poll, said.

What’s keeping South Australians awake at night?

It was not all good news for Labor, with voters rating the Malinauskas government poorly on several issues, including cost of living, hospital ramping and the algal bloom, with net negative performance ratings.

A whopping 53 per cent of South Australians thought the government was doing a bad job addressing cost of living, 52 per cent on hospital ramping, 49 per cent on the algal bloom and 47 per cent on housing.

Some 32 per cent of respondents listed cost of living as the biggest issue facing the state, followed by housing at 22 per cent, health and hospitals at 13 per cent, the ongoing algal bloom at six per cent and the economy at six per cent.

Despite a focus on crime by both parties, with Labor promising $172 million to increase the state’s police force to 5000 officers by 2030/31 and the Liberal Party this week unveiling its own plan to recruit more police officers, only five per cent of South Australians said this was the top issue facing the state.

Overall, South Australian voters had a positive outlook, with 45 per cent stating that they think South Australia was “headed in the right direction, compared to 36 per cent who said the state is going in “the wrong direction” and 19 per cent who were unsure.