Where retirees are moving out – and family buyers are moving in
In the past five years, the number of Australians aged 65 and over has surged by 16.6 per cent, and many of these cashed-up retirees – sitting on decades of property gains – have been a dominant force at auctions and open homes nationwide.
But research by OurTop10 suggests the tide may be turning in some surprising areas.
The analysis pinpoints specific city suburbs where retiree populations are declining – signalling that long-time homeowners are moving on, downsizing, or shifting to regional lifestyle destinations. For younger families, that could mean fewer bidders and more choice in suburbs once considered out of reach.
“This research reveals why timing matters in property strategy,” OurTop10 chief executive Simon Ma said.
“Rather than following established demographic trends, families should identify areas where year-on-year changes signal new opportunities. A 4 per cent decline this year in Holland Park West or Glenfield could be the start of a multiyear trend that creates sustained buying advantages.”
A changing urban map
Despite the tree-change trend, 68 per cent of Australians still live in capital cities, and most working families remain tied to metropolitan areas for employment.
That makes finding “hidden gems” within city limits essential for families chasing affordability without giving up career prospects or access to urban amenities.
Ma said the key was recognising when demographic patterns shifted.
“Demographic trends create windows of opportunity,” he said.
“Families who identify and act on current-year declines in over-65 populations can secure quality homes before these trends become widely recognised – and competition returns.”
OurTop10’s national research examined suburbs with more than 1000 residents and focused on detached housing markets rather than inner-city apartments. The findings revealed seven capital city hotspots where the over-65 population is shrinking – and where families might find the path to home ownership a little smoother.
Brisbane: Retirees move out, families move in
Queensland’s capital presents the most compelling opportunity for family buyers.
Even though Brisbane’s overall retiree population is growing rapidly, there have been declines in 27 of its 237 suburbs in the past year – the highest proportion of any major city.
Holland Park West leads with a sustained five-year decline, offering proximity to the city’s south with established infrastructure and good schools. Northern suburbs such as Geebung show emerging potential for early movers.
“Holland Park West’s sustained 9.6 per cent decline over five years, accelerating to 4 per cent this year, shows this isn’t a temporary blip,” Ma said.
“Meanwhile, areas like Geebung represent emerging opportunities where families can get ahead of established trends.”
Sydney: Small shifts, big potential
Even in Sydney’s notoriously competitive housing market, small demographic shifts can open up big opportunities.
The OurTop10 data found several pockets across the city – including the northern beaches, south-west corridor, and central coast – where retirees are moving out in measurable numbers.
Glenfield’s consistent decline makes it a standout in Sydney’s south-west, while Belrose represents a rare opening in the city’s affluent northern corridor. Even the inner-east suburb of Kingsford is showing a retreat in its retiree base.
“Sydney’s market is so competitive that any demographic shift becomes significant,” Ma said.
“Glenfield’s consistent trend suggests genuine opportunities in areas with established infrastructure, while the declines in Kingsford and Belrose indicate that even affluent retirees are relocating.”
Melbourne: Middle-ring suburbs on the move
Melbourne’s over-65 population continues to grow at about 3 per cent, just under the national average.
But some suburbs are showing the opposite trend – particularly in the middle and outer rings.
Clayton central leads the nation for long-term decline in retiree residents, down almost 15 per cent in five years.
Parkville’s steep five-year fall suggests turnover may be stabilising, while Altona North and Glenroy offer middle-ring affordability.
“Clayton central’s combination of current and historical decline represents one of the most significant active opportunities we’ve identified,” Ma said.
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“When combined with emerging trends in areas like Altona North, it’s clear Melbourne still offers strategic options for families willing to look beyond the obvious.”
Perth: A rare pattern of decline
Retiree numbers have leapt 21 per cent in Perth in the past five years – but some suburbs are bucking that trend, particularly around the inner and south-eastern corridors.
“Perth’s concentrated declines are striking,” Ma said.
“Bentley-Wilson-St James is showing consistent long-term movement, while close-to-city suburbs like Yokine and Wembley offer rare chances to buy into well-connected neighbourhoods.”
Adelaide: Subtle signs of change
Adelaide is showing the least movement of all capital cities, with declines in just five of 105 areas – making these shifts especially meaningful for early buyers.
“Belair’s hills setting shows the strongest current decline,” Ma said.
“Even North Adelaide, right near the city, is seeing retirees move on; that’s a rare opportunity for young families to move closer to the action.”
Hobart: Big swings in small numbers
Hobart’s retiree growth rate is modest at just 2.6 per cent, but there are sharper falls in certain suburbs, particularly on the city’s eastern and northern flanks.
“Hobart presents a unique opportunity because modest citywide growth masks significant local change,” Ma said.
“Mornington and Warrane’s 6 per cent decline this year is a signal. Retirees are moving, and families can take advantage of that turnover.”
Canberra: Suburbs in transition
Even in Canberra’s typically stable market, shifts are emerging, especially in the south and south-west.
“Canberra’s data reveals something fascinating about government town demographics,” Ma said.
“Many residents move there for work rather than lifestyle. So, when retirement comes, there’s often a natural inclination to relocate. That opens the door for the next generation of professionals and families.”
What it means for buyers
While retirees continue to shape Australia’s property market, OurTop10’s findings suggest a subtle but powerful shift: In certain city suburbs, the competition may finally be easing.
For families priced out or fatigued by the intensity of recent years, these areas – from Brisbane’s Holland Park West to Melbourne’s Clayton – could mark the start of a new cycle.
“Families who act on these trends early will be the ones looking back in five years, wondering how they managed to buy in just before everyone else caught on,” Ma said.
