The population of Australians aged 85 years and over is especially important to watch.

Once Australians reach these older ages, the likelihood of needing help with mobility, self-care and other daily activities rises sharply.

In practical terms, just over half of the 85-plus cohort needs some form of daily care. As Australia ages, we must dedicate a larger workforce to health and aged-care related tasks.

But the latest population data from the ABS allows us to look at how unevenly the aging process played out across Australia’s 100 largest towns (the Australian Bureau of Statistics calls them “significant urban areas”). 

Between 2001 and 2025, the number of residents aged 85-plus increased everywhere, but the winners of the ageing race depend on how we measure it. 

In percentage terms, Medowie in the Hunter region had the largest increase. Its 85-plus population rose from just 55 people in 2001 to 336 in 2025, an increase of 511 per cent.

Airlie Beach-Cannonvale followed, up 348 per cent, while Darwin’s 85-plus population rose by 297 per cent. Nelson Bay increased by 281 per cent, St Georges Basin-Sanctuary Point by 275 per cent and Hervey Bay by 268 per cent. 

These spectacular percentages need context. Small starting populations create large percentage changes. Broome, for example, had a 267 per cent increase, but that meant its 85-plus population grew from only 21 people to 77. 

The absolute numbers tell a different story

Melbourne added 61,666 residents aged 85 and over between 2001 and 2025, more than any other urban area.

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Sydney added 54,731, Perth 29,063, Brisbane 26,794 and Adelaide 18,545. The Gold Coast-Tweed Heads added another 12,112, the Sunshine Coast 8184, Canberra-Queanbeyan 6118 and Newcastle-Maitland 5831. 

This is the first lesson for planners. The places with the fastest ageing rates are not necessarily those facing the largest increase in demand.

A small retirement town can have an extraordinarily old population, while capital cities still need to absorb the largest raw number of additional very old residents. 

The change in population share is even more striking in the classic retirement belt.

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Forster-Tuncurry’s 85-plus share rose from 2.44 per cent to 5.76 per cent, a jump of 3.32 percentage points. Nelson Bay climbed from 1.59 to 4.72 per cent, while Victor Harbor-Goolwa rose from 2.76 to 5.82 per cent.

These are not simply growing towns with more old people. The very old are becoming a much larger part of the local population.  

Towns can make a deliberate decision to welcome more older people by establishing aged-care facilities – Hervey Bay in Queensland comes to mind as an example.

It quadrupled its 85-plus cohort in the past 25 years (from 641 to 2358). That wasn’t simply the result of the local population ageing but was aided significantly by newly developed care facilities.  

Which urban areas are actually the oldest? 

Victor Harbor-Goolwa (South Australia) tops the table. In 2025, 5.82 per cent of its population was aged 85-plus. Forster-Tuncurry (NSW) was almost identical at 5.76 per cent. Camden Haven (NSW) came next at 4.86 per cent, followed by Nelson Bay (NSW) at 4.72 per cent.

Castlemaine and Port Macquarie both sat a little above 4.1 per cent. Wangaratta, Taree, Bowral-Mittagong, Grafton, Colac and Ballina were all close to or above 3.8 per cent. 

The geography is hardly random. 

Many of these places are coastal or lifestyle destinations that have attracted retirees for decades. The people who moved there in their late 50s and 60s during the sea-change era have simply aged in place.

ABS research has long shown older Australians moving from major cities into coastal retirement destinations, and the latest regional population data still finds our oldest local populations concentrated in such places.  

There is a second force at work. Older Australians increasingly cluster where the services they need are available.

The local health and care system grew around the needs of the populations but are increasingly put under pressure as an ever-older local population needs ever more care. 

Once in your 80s, proximity to a hospital, specialist care, home-care workers, pharmacies, family and residential aged care matters more than proximity to a mine, new housing estate or booming jobs market.

Regional centres such as Port Macquarie, Wangaratta and Taree serve large surrounding catchments. Some very old residents will move into these centres from smaller towns or remote districts when their care needs increase.

That’s the sponge city effect in action. A regional hub soaks up the ageing population of surrounding regional and remote areas without adequate medical coverage.

Large aged-care facilities can reinforce the pattern by concentrating very old residents in a particular service centre. The Australian Institute of Health and Welfare notes that people in remote areas can face greater barriers to aged care and relocate to access higher-level services – that keeps remote areas young as a statistical byproduct. 

Now look at the other end of the table

Karratha has the lowest 85-plus share in the country: Only 0.08 per cent. Port Hedland sits at 0.22 per cent, Broome at 0.47 per cent, Emerald at 0.62 per cent, Airlie Beach-Cannonvale at 0.67 per cent, Darwin and Alice Springs at about 0.76 per cent, Kalgoorlie-Boulder at 0.80 per cent and Mount Isa at 0.88 per cent. 

These places have much in common, but I would broaden the description beyond mining and agriculture. 

They are work-first cities, they are functional places. 

Karratha, Port Hedland, Kalgoorlie and Mount Isa are heavily shaped by resources. Emerald is a mining and agricultural service centre. Darwin combines government, defence and regional services. Alice Springs and Broome are remote service and tourism hubs. Airlie Beach is driven heavily by tourism. 

Their economies pull in working-age adults. Their populations are mobile. People often arrive for a job rather than for retirement, and many leave again when the job ends. 

At the same time, remoteness makes ageing in place harder. Specialist health care and residential aged care are thinner on the ground. Distance from adult children and family support becomes more important.

Extreme climates can become less attractive. The result is a demographic conveyor belt: Workers arrive young, while some residents depart again before reaching the oldest ages. 

This is why the 85-plus map is so revealing. It is not merely a map of where Australians live longest. It is a map of the functions our cities perform. 

Some places specialise in jobs. Some specialise in lifestyle. Some become regional care hubs. The capital cities do everything at once. 

Over the next two decades, Australia’s 85-plus population will grow rapidly as the large baby boomer generation moves into very old age – remember that the oldest boomer is only 81 in 2026. The national story is inevitable, but the local story will vary enormously. 

Victor Harbor will need to think about aged-care workers and accessible housing. Karratha will remain focused on attracting working-age labour. Melbourne and Sydney will face the sheer scale problem of adding tens of thousands more very old residents. 

Ageing is national. But care will forever remain intensely local. 

Simon Kuestenmacher is a co-founder of The Demographics Group. His columns, media commentary and public speaking focus on current socio-demographic trends and how these impact Australia. His podcast, Demographics Decoded, explores the world through the demographic lens. Follow Simon on Twitter (X), Facebook, or LinkedIn.