Orange surge spoils Mali’s post-election ‘honeymoon’
Exclusive polling reveals the Liberals are at risk of becoming One Nation’s “junior coalition partner”, while the Premier’s post-election shine is already wearing off, just months after the state election.
Support for One Nation has continued to climb in South Australia, three months after the state election, which saw the party make history, winning four Lower House seats.
New polling from DemosAU/Ace Strategies, exclusively seen by InDaily, found One Nation’s primary share has lifted 3.1 percentage points to 26 per cent, making it the second-most popular party in South Australia.
It ate away at both Labor and Liberal’s share of the primary vote, with both parties suffering a decline in support; Labor down 2.5 percentage points since the election to 35 per cent, and the Liberals down 0.9 points to 18 per cent.
Meanwhile, the SA Greens were enjoying a boost in primary share by 2.6 per cent to 13 per cent, putting the progressive party at the heels of the state Opposition.
The latest poll of 931 South Australian voters was conducted from May 29 to June 15, capturing the electorate’s mood three months after a Labor landslide win at the state election.
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DemosAU/Ace Strategies’ pre-election polling was highly accurate and correctly predicted all party totals to within two percentage points, and the One Nation vote within 0.1 percentage points.
The new polling showed Premier Peter Malinauskas’ shine was already starting to wear off. While he remained the most popular Premier in the nation, with a net approval rating of +22, he suffered a seven-point slide on this measure since the election.
DemosAU head of research George Hasanakos said he was “surprised, seeing we’ve just had this big win for Malinauskas, that he hasn’t had a little bit of a honeymoon”.
By comparison, Liberal Opposition Leader Ashton Hurn had a net approval rating in the negatives at -3 per cent, and One Nation leader Cory Bernardi, despite his party’s popularity, had a net approval rating of -21.
Voters were also more pessimistic about the direction of the state since the election, with 38 per cent saying it was heading in the right direction (down six points since the DemosAU/Ace Strategies March poll) and 39 per cent saying it was heading in the wrong direction (up three points).
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On a two-party preferred basis, Labor was on 56 per cent (down 2.1 per cent from the election), compared to One Nation on 44 per cent.
Hasanakos said he was “not surprised” at the strength of the One Nation support in the polling, noting similar polling nationwide showing the conservative party’s escalating popularity.
“Support for One Nation has risen across all of our recent state and national polls, so this is nothing unique to South Australia,” Hasanakos said.
“If the trend seen in this poll becomes entrenched, then One Nation will become the main electoral opponent to Labor, while the Liberals could only hope to return to government as One Nation’s junior coalition partner.”
Ace Strategies director Matt Neagle said One Nation’s rise in SA was being driven by anti-establishment sentiment, rather than by policy alignment.
“Their support base spans voters from the left through to the far right, which tells us this is a protest movement, not a cohesive ideological block,” he said.
“What stands out in the polls is that One Nation continues to grow without presenting a detailed or compelling policy vision for the state. Their momentum is being fuelled by a frustration with traditional parties, not a clear alternative agenda.
“Labor has lost ground, and the Liberals have not capitalised on that shift.”
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