Mali to switch from dream boat to ‘mean machine’
Premier Malinauskas is tipped to drop the “warm, fuzzy guy that any mother would want their daughter to marry” image as Mike Smithson delivers some tough post- election insights.
Elections always toss up surprises with the major parties telling us, in hindsight, that they’ve learned a lot from the result.
So, with just over a week since polls closed and the result beyond doubt, I’m now revealing the ten points that I’ve learned from SA deciding in 2026.
Let me be clear, this is candid and will be considered brutal by some.
One: Mali to become the mean machine
Don’t expect Peter Malinauskas to be the warm, fuzzy guy that any mother would want their daughter to marry, despite the fact he’s indelibly hitched to the delightful Annabel with four children.
The Premier has already won the popularity stakes in successive elections and doesn’t necessarily need to keep the charm offensive going for the entire four-year period until 2030.
He knows that Labor’s long reign will continue well into the next decade and now is the time to solidify a huge team into an unbeatable force with an evolving succession plan.
He has already demanded discipline and solidarity and heaven help anyone who might break ranks.
Malinauskas can become an angry ogre if he needs to be and that firmness could be required as SA and the rest of the world continue to sail into uncharted waters of global uncertainty.
Two: The Liberals have become largely irrelevant
This result is an utter drubbing and a disaster for a party which needs to reform and recruit members and new candidates for the future.
I’ve been around politics long enough to recognise all the warning signs of irrelevancy.
When Labor was reduced to 10 lower house MPs after the State Bank collapse it took years to restore credibility with bright, young talent including Kevin Foley quickly emerging as true-believer warriors.
Mike Rann and his chief media advisor, the late Jill Bottrall, were relentless in planning and pulling every lever to claw back the party’s mojo.
That was before social media dictated public perceptions and without the lurking shadow of One Nation.
Then came tearaway newcomers, such as Tom Koutsantonis, with their likeable but sometimes brattish behaviours.
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‘Whatever it takes’ was their mantra during often risky but successful politics a decade later.
With just half that number now remaining for the Libs, I don’t see the likes of veterans Tim Whetstone or Josh Teague leading a new rat pack.
The talented Ashton Hurn has a much tougher task than those of the 1990s.
Three: Be careful what you wish for
One Nation, via cult leader Pauline Hanson, has already signalled its intention to blow things up on North Terrace.
With an astounding three, and perhaps four, candidates elected to the lower house and potentially three in the Legislative Council, does Hanson’s election night “land mine” warning to the Premier indicate that nothing will pass through parliament smoothly?
She seems intent on creating problems from a distance and no doubt will be instructing her new troops to carry out her orders.
Voters have democratically voiced their anger towards the major parties, but will that solve the wider economic challenges facing the state?
I’m carefully watching for any signs of One Nation stepping on its own improvised explosive devices.
Four: David Speirs… going, going gone
The delusional David Speirs’ experiment got exactly what it deserved.
He failed as a Liberal leader, he occasionally had trouble telling the truth, he’s a convicted drug supplier, he blamed others for his own deficiencies and then begged for forgiveness when he was caught out.
It would have been a travesty had he been re-elected as an independent in Black.
I hope Speirs finds peace and harmony in his next career and that any inner demons he still suffers with will be exorcised as he moves on.
But, in my view, his previous crimes forfeited any right to be re-elected to state parliament.
The major players didn’t want a bar of his preference overtures which is a sure sign he would have been a pariah had he again been frequenting the corridors of power.
Five: Confessions of the Priest
A prominent Liberal told me recently that Labor’s new member for Morphett, Toby Priest, must be the luckiest MP alive.
Given that he’s a new face and was up against ‘everywhere Liberal’ Stephen Patterson, a close race was always likely.
When other established Labor MPs around him won easily, a predicted coin toss result in Morphett could have given the largely unknown Priest a narrow loss rather than a narrow victory.
Any protest vote over the Glenelg tram works disruption would have hit hardest along the Morphett electorate transport corridor.
If Priest was up for a true confession, he might agree with me.
But congratulations Toby on your win and commiserations to Patterson who was a good local member.
Even the Premier has warmly acknowledged Patto’s service.
Six: The independence of Independents
Successful independent candidates can wield the balance of power in a hung parliament and even become members of new cabinets.
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Peter Lewis was the clincher in Labor seizing power in 2002, with the late Bob Such and evergreen Geoff Brock also winning influence beyond their wildest dreams in 2014.
But I have bad news for newcomers Lou Nicholson in Finniss, Matt Schultz in Kavel and Travis Fatchen in Mount Gambier.
You have all won the hearts of your local brethren, but Peter Malinauskas doesn’t need you.
However, all have new responsibilities which could still have a major impact if the independents work with a considered and purposeful approach.
Seven: Be careful where you put your preferences
This election delivered a One Nation wildcard, but did the Libs fall for the three-card trick?
They preferenced One Nation ahead of Labor, but then lost key rural seats of Ngadjuri, Hammond and MacKillop.
The Liberals didn’t enjoy reciprocal rights from One Nation, and they were the ultimate losers.
But party chiefs say that decision alone didn’t influence the results and they have no regrets.
I’m not certain defeated incumbents would agree with that theory, but what’s done is done.
Eight: Only the good die young
Speaking of which, two Liberals MPs, who I confidently tipped would be returned to office, have now exited well before their use-by dates.
Penny Pratt is leaving Ngadjuri after one term.
She was an active shadow minister and prior to that a ministerial advisor in the Marshall government.
With her also goes valuable experience and intellectual property from the front line which will be difficult to replicate.
It’s hard to see her trying to relaunch her political career in 2030 or beyond but never say never.
Vincent Tarzia also takes a wealth of experience into political oblivion.
He’s a former Liberal Leader, Speaker and minister.
But critics will always argue the Libs would have performed far worse had he remained leader.
Nine: Unlucky for some
Every politician should have ministerial aspirations.
Newland MP Olivia Savvas has turned her marginal seat into a safe north-eastern suburbs’ stronghold entering her second term.
Yet she was overlooked for a Labor front bench position, whilst Unley newcomer Alice Rolls was given the Child Protection and Domestic Violence portfolios.
On day one, Rolls is a new MP with, arguably, the most demanding cabinet positions.
In other words, two new jobs.
Ten: The times, they are a changin’
Former Health Minister Chris Picton was roundly criticised by the Premier for an unacceptable error of judgment over a recent email bungle involving the widow of a cancer patient.
I’ve always queried who knew what and when over the incident and speculated that Picton was the “fall guy”.
Some ministers have been sacked for less, but Picton has now been promoted to a super-sized economic and development portfolio.
Good luck Chris because you have had an annus horribilis.
So, there’s no doubt SA’s political landscape has changed forever, with the ‘test of time’ remaining a key unknown.
Mike Smithson is weekend presenter and political analyst for 7News.
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