SA ‘current standout’ as farmer fortunes look to turn
A new report is predicting a cropping rainbow at the end of dark clouds hanging over SA farmers for the past few years.
New RaboResearch is showing South Australia is among the “current standout regions when it comes to cropping, with very favourable conditions across the Eyre Peninsula after early rain in late February and March created valuable subsoil moisture”.
Follow-up rain falls through May, June and early July have left crops looking strong across wheat, lentils and other winter crops, according to Rabobank senior grains and oilseed analyst Vitor Pistoia.
The bank says the season in parts of South Australia is now tracking as one of the more positive in the national winter-crop belt but its latest data released today comes with a surprise warning.
“Some lower-lying areas would actually benefit from a drier spell and sunshine to reduce waterlogging pressure,” the release said.
Pistoia said the national crop picture had “really, really changed” following a run of good rainfall events helping establish crops and rebuild grower confidence across much of the country.
“The models and the feeling and the vibe really changed here in the country,” Pistoia said.
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“We are potentially going for an average season now – no longer below average.”
This was reinforced by Grain Producers SA CEO Brad Perry, who told InDaily that SA was experiencing “one of the best starts to a season in many years”.
“The season is flying ahead,” he said.
“Obviously there’s still a long way to go. It’s never done until it’s in a soil, but it’s looking really positive at the moment.”
However, Pistoia said, with an El Niño increasing the risk of below-average spring rainfall through the growing season, there was cause for caution about how the crop would finish, particularly across southern Queensland and northern New South Wales.
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For now, RaboResearch said the latest seasonal indicators point to national wheat production in the range of around 27 million to 30 million tonnes – assuming no major dry spells during spring and with continuing adequate supplies of farm inputs – supported by improving yield prospects.
Pistoia said crop models had already been showing a lift in wheat yield potential in early July, with the improvement equivalent to about 0.2-0.3 tonnes per hectare in some modelled outlooks.
“Things do change,” Pistoia said.
“A few months ago, this season was looking like it could be below average. Now, if spring can do enough of the job, Australia has the potential to print big numbers again.”
Perry said he was not counting his eggs just yet: “every grain producer in South Australia has been in this situation before”.
“It’s either gone really well and we’ve ended up with a record harvest, or we’ve been hit with adverse weather like frosts and winds and it’s taken the gloss off,” Perry said.
“We’re looking really positive at the moment, but we’ve still got some way to go.”
He added that the crop was “very expensive”, thanks to skyrocketing prices for fuel and fertiliser as a result of shortages due to war in the Middle East.
“There are some financial challenges, and we’re sitting in meetings with government and stakeholders to try and get ahead around potentially what’s coming on that front.”
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