Who is voting One Nation? Exclusive SA polling reveals orange hotspots
With two days left in the state election campaign, exclusive polling shows how much the Liberals stand to lose and who is voting for One Nation. Labor taking a dip in popularity from February.
Opposition Leader Ashton Hurn remains more popular than One Nation leader Cory Bernardi, despite her embattled Liberal party facing an orange surge in the regions, according to exclusive polling from DemosAU/Ace Strategies.
Results also showed a dip in Labor support of six per cent across the state from a poll last month, DemosAU’s research head George Hasanakos attributing the drop to competition from One Nation and a host of independents. But Labor was still on track “for a big victory”.
Hasanakos said although there was less negativity toward Hurn, her popularity had not grown enough throughout the campaign to turn things around for her party.
The latest polling – conducted between March 12 and March 18 with a sample size of 1242 SA voters – found Hurn has turned her net negative rating of minus two per cent in February to a net neutral. While Labor Leader Peter Malinauskas saw his popularity drop two per cent from 51 per cent in February to 49 per cent in March.
Whereas Bernardi is more polarising, with 36 per cent of voters feeling negatively towards him, and only 20 per cent positive, giving him a net negative position.
The polling period came after Bernardi’s comments about Aboriginal place naming and comparing homosexuality to “bestiality” emerged earlier in March.
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A breakdown of the primary vote by region showed One Nation leading the Liberals in regional and rural SA – with One Nation pulling 39 per cent of the vote compared to the Liberal’s 15 per cent.
Hasanakos said the regional/rural breakdown “may be too flattering for One Nation” and that the big question on Saturday night would be how many votes the party, headed by Queenslander Pauline Hanson, netted overall.
He said the surge in One Nation support could see the Liberals, as earlier polls indicated, being at risk of being replaced as the official opposition.
Hasanakos said the most vulnerable regional seats likely to fall to One Nation were seats like Liberal Sam Telfer’s seat of Flinders on the Eyre Peninsula and Liberal Tim Whetstone’s seat of Chaffey in the Riverland, while independents like Lou Nicholson could also see success in unseating Finniss Liberal David Basham on the Fleurieu Peninsula
“The Labor vote has fallen throughout the campaign as One Nation’s momentum has grown and numerous independents and minor parties have thrown their hat in the ring,” he said.
The polling indicated 39 per cent of people in the regions would vote One Nation.
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One Nation was less popular with over 55s than the Labor Party, with 25 per cent of that demographic saying they would vote One Nation, compared to 21 per cent saying they would vote Liberal and 39 per cent saying they would vote Labor.
In outer metro areas, 38 per cent of voters intended to vote Labor, 24 per cent intended to vote One Nation and 15 per cent intended to vote for the Liberals.
Hasanakos said though the Labor vote had fallen since last month’s poll, both the Liberals and One Nation struggled to compete with a Premier who still polled reasonably well with over 55s and those on both sides of the political spectrum.
“When people in the right of politics are very anti somebody on the left, then preferences will flow very strongly, but we just don’t see that animosity there towards Malinauskas that we may have seen with Dan Andrews or even Anthony Albanese,” Hasanakos said.
“If you had a more left-wing Labour leader they wouldn’t be this far ahead.”
But, Hasanakos, said Malinauskas has “been successful whilst appealing to the centre and holding his left flank”.
“I think another interesting feature in all this is, you would think Malinauskas would alienate people on the left and the Greens would do better.
“But when we break down the voters by whether they declare themselves left-wing, right-wing, centrist, or they don’t know, among left-wing voters Labor still leads the Greens.”
When asked about the trend in the polls, a Liberal Party spokesperson said, “people are turning off politics and politicians because they’re sick of big promises being broken”.
“The simple truth is Labor has failed on its signature election policy and isn’t getting the important things right,” the spokesperson said.
“The Liberal team is putting forward positive, fully costed policies that have practical ways to make life more affordable. Minor parties haven’t done the same.”
The DemosAU/Ace Strategies polls surveyed 1242 South Australians on their views from March 12–18, 2026, with an effective margin of error of +/- 3.4 per cent each way.
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