Algal bloom will persist for ‘decades’ under worst-case scenario modelling
At the first hearing of the state parliament’s inquiry into the algal bloom crisis that’s killed tens of thousands of sea animals, the government’s response coordinator said worst-case scenario modelling could see the environmental disaster ebb and flow for “decades”.
As the state government prepares to release its summer plan to tackle the algal bloom crisis, a State Parliament Joint Committee has heard worst-case scenario modelling suggests the algae that is killing multitudes of marine species across South Australia could persist for “decades”.
But the state government is preparing its summer plan based on a more optimistic ‘boom bust’ scenario, whereby the bloom will continue to expand and contract on a seasonal basis, drawing on experience from other nations, particularly the United States.
Evidence was given at the first hearing of the state parliament’s Joint Committee – established by Greens MLC Robert Simms, who is also chair of the inquiry – by the Department of Premier and Cabinet’s Algal Bloom Response Coordinator Chris Beattie today.
Beattie said government planning was drawing upon three broad scenarios, informed by scientific officials.
The best case scenario was that the bloom would dissipate over the course of spring.
“A worst case scenario, on the other hand, would see the algal bloom persist through our waters with a boom and bust cycle, potentially on a seasonal basis, for several years to come,” Beattie said.
“We based our summer plan around the most-likely scenario, which would see a contraction and expansion and persist over the medium term of the bloom.
“It’s very uncertain. There’s not a lot of confidence in any of the assessments as to what those cycles might look like. It could be on a monthly basis, it could be seasonal. It’ll be very contingent on the environmental conditions and the prevailing weather.”
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He said the government was “investing heavily to learn more about the nature of this bloom”.
As of last week, Beattie said more than $18 million of a $28 million joint state and federal support package had been committed across a range of programs.
This included supporting more than 130 businesses, public information activities, community forums and the new “one-stop-shop” website for algal bloom information.
It also includes a new algal bloom hotline, announced by Premier Peter Malinauskas last week to provide South Australians with “accurate, timely and consistent information about the algal bloom affecting parts of South Australia”.
The government also announced last week that it had created a new $1.4 million protection plan for at-risk sea lions, saying 80 per cent of the endangered national population lived in SA waters.
“The feedback that we’ve been receiving from those forums and those information channels is directly fed into shaping the summer plan with future programs and adjustments to the existing effort,” Beattie said.
Citizen scientist efforts in logging dead fish on SA beaches has found more than 57,000 individual mortalities have occurred during the bloom period, but Beattie said “clearly that’s only a portion” and that it was “highly difficult to be accurate around this.”
It comes as most recent data found some 1600 kilograms of dead sea life was collected from SA beaches over late-September to early-October.
The state opposition has been calling on the state government to release its ‘summer plan’ for the algal bloom crisis.
On Monday, the Premier took to social media to say his government would announce its summer plan “in the next fortnight”.
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He said that while there was a “comprehensive team of experts conducting exhaustive research including international collaborations, it’s clear that simply making the algal bloom disappear or even predicting when it will leave our gulf system is virtually impossible”.
“Which is why we are preparing the summer package which will be comprehensive in nature,” he said on social media.
The inquiry was established last month to consider a range of issues, including the factors that caused the algal bloom to spread, economic impacts, effects on community health and wellbeing, the state government’s response to the crisis, long-term monitoring and prevention strategies.
Simms said it was an “opportunity for parliament to scrutinise the state government’s response to the algal bloom and examine the steps we can take to get this under control”.
“As we head into summer, this inquiry will play an important role in ensuring we get all of the facts on the table.”
Earlier this year, the Federal Senate also held its own inquiry into the algal bloom crisis.
Chaired by Greens Senator Sarah Hanson-Young, the inquiry travelled across South Australia and heard from scientists, local community members, state and federal government representatives and business owners.
It uncovered a murky timeline about the federal government’s response, hearing that environment department officials were not aware of the impact of the bloom until the end of May, despite the issue emerging months beforehand.
It also heard from a major South Australian seafood business – Yumbah – which said it sustained a direct financial impact of about $5 million due to the algal bloom.
Yumbah Aquaculture CEO David Wood said the business was forced to stand down workers and was suffering from lost harvest potential, enforced industry closure and urgent risk mitigation measures brought on by the crisis engulfing the SA seafood industry.
Coastal communities also revealed the emotional impact of the algal bloom, with submissions revealing the emotional toll the natural disaster has taken on coastal communities.
In another hearing at Victor Harbor, a distraught commercial fisher said he had not caught any squid since Easter.
The Joint Committee continues.
