Federal thrashing bad news for state Liberals
Vincent Tarzia says he accepts the federal thrashing with grace and humility, writes Mike Smithson. But he had better not wait for the official review before doing something about the Lib’s losing ways.
Labor’s federal election massacre is already sending shockwaves through some in the SA Liberal Party, and for very good reasons.
The “redwash” from the weekend leaves every metropolitan seat in Labor hands, which for many in that party came as no surprise.
Sturt and Boothby were always considered the seats to watch and must wins for the Liberals to have any chance of winning the grand prize.
But by 6.40pm on Saturday night, I was already receiving feedback from scrutineers in both seats that it was virtually one way traffic towards Labor.
They were votes from pivotal booths, which were always going to tell the final story, and that proved to be the case.
SA Liberals have only 10 short months to get over the federal shock and move into election mode themselves.
They’re 11 seats short of forming a majority government, meaning Labor needs to suffer a highly unlikely catastrophe.
In short: it’s all but not going to happen.
One senior state Liberal sent me a text message after the federal mayhem saying “if you thought the State Libs were in trouble before…” followed by an alarming emoji.
Even more prophetic was the Mali factor.
As I indicated in InDaily early in the federal campaign, the Premier would be trotted out at every available opportunity as a not-so-secret weapon.
He’s Labor’s poster boy across state and federal spheres because he resonates well in every public forum.
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On Saturday, he was meeting and greeting voters in Sturt and Boothby, politely introducing himself with a cheerful smile and wishing them well.
Such image-making combines individual personality, recognition factor, timing and being in the right place.
He ticks all the boxes, which presents a Mount Everest task for the Opposition.
That’s already been proven in the Dunstan and Black by-elections.
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State Libs have constantly relied upon voters recognising the difference between state and federal issues.
But that theory’s been blown out of the water with the weekend result.
Labor now has seven of the 10 SA federal seats, with the Libs holding two regional safe havens and Centre Alliance MP Rebekha Sharkie retaining Mayo which she first won 2016.
On that note, she can rightfully claim ownership of the Hills and Fleurieu for as long as she wants.
Mayo voters once lauded Liberal icon Alexander Downer, but the tide has turned.
Once a hardworking Independent gets a foothold they’re hard to dislodge.
Sharkie’s only drawback is that in a majority government, she has less bargaining power than an MP whose support is constantly courted by a minority government.
Sturt is a textbook example of a candidate promoted in the right way by the right people.
Claire Clutterham was personally anointed by the Prime Minister and the Premier.
She’s eminently qualified and pounded the beat, winning support in the traditional Labor way.
“Claire got to work on day one and now deserves the rewards of that effort with this exceptional result,” according to the Premier.
In the bigger picture, he’s also excited about a continuing close relationship with Anthony Albanese to support Whyalla’s changing needs.
As I reported back at Clutterham’s official campaign launch, the Premier was uncharacteristically scathing of her Liberal opponent James Stevens.
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Malinauskas described Stevens as a deadweight who wasn’t speaking up for Sturt in Canberra.
Being publicly and politically cursed by Mali may have been more damaging than first thought.
By yesterday, the Premier had toned down the rhetoric by positively acknowledging Stevens’ short time in office
In Boothby, my advice from three weeks ago was that Liberal polling was so bad that they’d almost given up.
The increased majority for Labor’s Louise Miller-Frost would support that theory, with Boothby now a safe Labor stronghold.
Elsewhere, Labor’s clutch seats of Adelaide, Makin, Spence, Kingston and Hindmarsh are not only safe and secure now, but probably also well beyond the next federal election.
Grey and Barker are the only untouchable Liberal seats with new candidate Tom Venning accepting the baton from the retired Rowan Ramsey, and Tony Pasin keeping his well-deserved grip in the Mallee and the southeast.
Love or loathe him, Pasin is a warrior and a true believer who’s made the Barker region his own.
The Senate result is also destined to add to Liberal misery, with Labor set to snatch the sixth seat from incumbent veteran David Fawcett who’ll now be consigned to the political scrapheap.
The SA Liberal leader must remain upbeat but acknowledges there’s a big hill to climb on his trek to March 2026.
Vincent Tarzia says he accepts the federal thrashing with grace and humility.
“We need to re-double our efforts to earn the trust and support of South Australians,’ he said 24 hours after the federal result.
“We don’t take anything for granted and we will continue to hold the government to account.”
Tarzia still has faith – is it blind faith? – that victory is achievable next year.
He promises a bold set of policies and points toward the Liberal view of protecting valuable farming land from Labor’s vast housing developments.
The Liberal leader says Labor has also copied his policy on apprenticeship training.
What, if anything, have the state Libs learned from Peter Dutton’s losing election formula?
As are all Liberals, Tarzia will await the party’s review into the disaster.
But that may also eat into his limited election planning and preparation time.
Meanwhile, he needs to convince his own party room, including the MP who texted me, that he is steering the right course and not heading for the rocks.
Mike Smithson is weekend presenter and political analyst for 7News.
