Electoral map leaves Liberal Party with uphill task in 2026
The Liberal Party will need a swing upwards of five per cent – and possibly much more – to win the next state election, after the electoral boundaries commission released its final seat map for the 2026 poll.
After months of deliberations, the Electoral Districts Boundaries Commission on Thursday published its final report setting the boundaries for the state’s 47 Lower House seats.
The independent commission, chaired by Supreme Court judge Anne Bampton, opted for “minimal disturbance” to the last election map and only adjusted the boundaries of 16 seats, affecting roughly 38,894 voters.
The adjustments don’t make the Liberal Party’s task of winning back government any easier, with Labor’s marginal seats of Elder, Gibson, Davenport, Waite, Newland, Dunstan and Adelaide left unchanged.
The government’s position in the northeastern seat of King has also strengthened, with first-term MP Rhiannon Pearce’s margin increasing 2.7 points to 5.7 per cent due to the addition of Labor-friendly Salisbury East into her electorate.
Meanwhile, Liberal frontbencher Penny Pratt’s margin in the Mid North seat of Frome has been cut by 4.9 points to just 3.3 per cent.
This is partly due to the seat shifting south to incorporate the northern suburbs of Gawler, including Hewett and Gawler Belt, which is currently in Labor MP Tony Piccolo’s seat of Light.
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The commission has also renamed Frome to Ngadjuri after concerns were raised about Edward Charles Frome’s role in the burning of an Indigenous encampment in the 1840s.
Frome was South Australia’s third surveyor-general who played a key role in surveying land for settlers in the years after the state’s proclamation; Ngadjuri is the name of the Aboriginal people whose traditional lands are in the Mid North and Flinders Ranges.
The electorate of Frome, named after South Australia’s third Surveyor-General, has been renamed.
Meanwhile, the seat of Black – won by Labor’s Alex Dighton at a by-election last month – has been left unchanged, with the commission shelving an earlier proposal to make the seat more Labor-friendly.
Premier Peter Malinauskas’ seat of Croydon has also been left alone after the Premier railed against an earlier commission proposal to shift Bowden and part of Brompton out of his electorate.
If the 2022 state election result was replicated in 2026, the Labor Party would be expected to hold 27 seats to the Liberal Party’s 20.
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“Apportioning the 2022 election Labor/Liberal two-party preferred figures to the 2026 projected elector population results in a 55.0 per cent Labor Party to 45.0 per cent Liberal Party outcome,” the commission said in its final report.
“On that basis, the Liberal Party should expect to win 24 electoral districts and form government if it achieves a uniform 5.1 per cent swing.”
The 2026 electoral pendulum based on the 2022 election results. Image: EDBC
But the commission’s calculations do not account for the results of by-elections, with the seats of Black and Dunstan still considered marginal Liberal seats despite being won by Labor this year.
The commission also counts Kavel – held by ex-Liberal Dan Cregan, now a member of Labor’s cabinet – as a Liberal seat. Mount Gambier, Narungga and MacKillop – held by ex-Liberal independents – are also counted in the Liberal column, as is independent Geoff Brock’s seat of Stuart.
The Liberal Party currently only has 13 seats in the Lower House and needs a roughly 10 per cent swing to overturn the results of last month’s Black by-election. It would also need to convince Cregan, Brock and potentially MacKillop MP Nick McBride to side with them in the event of a hung parliament.
The Electoral Boundaries Commission is an independent three-member body comprised of Justice Bampton, Electoral Commissioner Mick Sherry and Surveyor-General Bradley Slape.
The 2026 redistricting represents one of the smallest adjustments made to the electoral map in the last 10 years. Redistricting in 2020, for example, affected 222,000 voters, compared to this year’s 38,894 voters.
The 2018 election redraw put the Liberals in pole position for victory and prompted Labor to launch a failed Supreme Court challenge, while the 2022 carve-up saw the pendulum swing back to Labor.
