Beyond the five-year plan: Why business leaders need to prepare for multiple futures
Strategic foresight can help South Australian organisations challenge assumptions, identify emerging risks and make better decisions in an increasingly unpredictable world.
Most organisations have a strategic plan. But in a world where technology, geopolitics, workforce expectations and economic conditions can shift dramatically, how much confidence should leaders place in a five-year roadmap?
For international strategic foresight expert Dexter Docherty, who will deliver the keynote address at the Adelaide Economic Development Agency Leaders Forum 2026 on November 12, the problem is not that organisations plan for the future, but that they often assume it will look much like the present.
“Conventional methods of strategic planning and analysis tend to be over-indexed on continuity,” Docherty says. “When they deal with change, it is usually change in one area while assuming other areas mostly stay the same. This presents a significant vulnerability in a world where it feels like everything is being disrupted at once.”
Traditional planning can also leave organisations vulnerable to groupthink, with leaders focused on immediate pressures and established ways of working rather than questioning whether those approaches will remain effective.
Strategic foresight offers a different perspective, helping organisations examine what is changing beyond their immediate environment while challenging the assumptions underpinning their own strategies.
Rather than attempting to predict what will happen next, it prepares leaders to make decisions across a range of possible futures.
“The objective of foresight is not to predict or discover which single future will come to pass,” Docherty says. “Rather, the goal is to accept an inherent degree of uncertainty when it comes to the futures we may one day find ourselves in.”
Preparing for possibilities, not predictions
Strategic foresight encompasses a range of methods, from horizon scanning to identify early signals of change, to developing alternative scenarios that test how an organisation’s strategy might perform under different conditions.
You might like
Another approach, known as backcasting, starts with a desired long-term future and works backwards to identify the steps needed to move towards it.
These techniques are designed to complement existing planning processes, not replace them. Even a single strategic meeting incorporating alternative scenarios can help decision-makers consider long-term consequences and identify assumptions they may otherwise overlook.
For Docherty, who has extensive experience working with governments, one particularly effective example comes from Finland.
“Before Finnish government elections, a foresight report is put together that all of the parties in Parliament contribute to,” he explains. “It brings multiple parties together to reflect on their assumptions, hopes and fears for the future and build a shared sense of what challenges may lie ahead for the country.
“This helps the country to develop a shared language and approach to how they tackle challenges and build towards a better future across administrations. The result is a certain coherence and potentially even higher trust from their government system as a whole.”
The Finnish example demonstrates how foresight can do more than identify potential risks. It can also build a common language for navigating uncertainty and strengthen the ability of different groups to work towards shared goals.
Businesses can apply the same principles by bringing together people with different perspectives, testing strategies against alternative scenarios and developing contingency plans before disruption arrives.
Docherty suggests leaders should pay attention to the people and information shaping their decisions. Relying on advisers from the same professional backgrounds or consuming news from a narrow range of sources can reinforce existing biases.
Being challenged is part of the process.
“It is a warning sign that you are overconfident in your assumptions if you have not had a conversation about the future that made you a little uneasy recently,” he says.
Connecting the dots in South Australia
For South Australian businesses, the need to look beyond familiar planning models is particularly relevant as the state navigates change across defence, advanced industries, technology and energy.
Docherty argues that leaders should consider not only developments within individual sectors, but also how changes in one area might affect another.
He points to the relationship between artificial intelligence and population ageing as an example of interconnected forces that warrant closer attention.
Many economies are counting on AI-driven productivity gains to help offset the rising costs associated with an ageing population and a shrinking workforce. A correction in AI investment could have broader economic consequences if the expected productivity gains fail to materialise or investment shifts elsewhere.
The lesson for business leaders is to look beyond individual trends and consider how several developments might combine to reshape the operating environment.
“The world is going to be very different in the years ahead,” Docherty says. “The rules of the game are changing. The things that worked in the past might not work in the future.”
That does not mean pursuing every new technology or abandoning established practices. Instead, leaders need to critically assess what is changing, understand which assumptions remain valid and decide how best to adapt.
“This is a moment for increased investment in looking outwards but also looking inwards,” Docherty says.
Building an anticipatory culture requires organisations to strengthen their understanding of the external environment while creating space for reflection, collaboration and collective problem-solving.
Turning foresight into action
These questions will be explored at the Adelaide Economic Development Agency Leaders Forum 2026, where Docherty will share insights into strategic foresight and its practical application.
Guided by Professor Ariella Helfgott and SA Futures, the forum will offer business leaders an opportunity to consider how foresight can help them challenge assumptions, navigate uncertainty and make more resilient strategic decisions.
For organisations facing consequential decisions, the value lies not in knowing exactly what comes next, but in being better prepared for the possibilities.
As Docherty explains, “An anticipatory culture is a collaborative creation.” Building that culture today could help South Australian organisations respond with greater confidence and agility to whatever the future brings.
Bring your leadership team into the conversation. Explore the AEDA Leaders Forum 2026 program and secure your tickets before registrations close.
Want to see more stories from InDaily SA in your Google search results?
- Click here to set InDaily SA as a preferred source.
- Tick the box next to "InDaily SA". That's it.
