A home-grown Liberal defeat
What role does John Olsen, the outgoing federal president of the Liberal Party of Australia, play in the wake of the federal election disaster?
With another defeat looming next March at state level, the Liberals need to quickly figure out who to turn to for direction.
John Olsen is a man of many roles who’s seen the ups and downs of politics.
The former SA Premier is probably better known to voters as chairman of the Adelaide Football Club.
He’s taken all before him, getting the Crows to Thebarton Oval amid a tsunami of concentrated local community concern, which had to be negotiated with the skill of a global diplomat – which he’s also been.
But the stakes are now higher for the Liberals than keeping Crow’s fans happy and talking up his team’s chances of going all the way in season 2025.
Olsen also needs to take responsibility for the dismal showing of the Liberal Party last weekend.
And does he have any future role to play with a state party drowning in a lack of self-belief?
To many, Olsen’s credentials in politics perhaps appear better than they really are.
He’s been a cutthroat warrior who’s regularly put his own interests at the top of the tree.
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I like the way he operates. Behind his friendly smile there’s always been a person willing to have a go and trample on toes, if need be, and take no prisoners.
We’re talking about a conservative faction giant of the Liberal party who cut his teeth in the SA Opposition losing two elections back in the 80s, moved onto Canberra for a short stint in the Senate and then came back for the kill.
After Labor’s State Bank disaster, Olsen misjudged an easy path to becoming Premier because he underestimated the enemy.
It wasn’t the Labor Party, but his Moderate faction nemesis Dean Brown who got in the way.
Brown’s Liberal government was elected in 1993, but didn’t even see out the term before Olsen convinced key Liberals that he was the best person for the job – and perhaps he was.
The rest is history as Olsen’s downward slide saw him narrowly re-elected in 1997 but then fall from grace after a disputed version of misleading parliament over an alleged dodgy inducement offered to software giant Motorola.
I, for one, saw that as part of doing good business for the state, but parliamentary rules are strict, and he reluctantly fell on his sword.
He’s never retreated after a mishap and then went onto create some great things in the United States with his Australian consul-general roles.
Surely, as the Liberal party’s federal president, he had the smarts to see the Dutton disaster looming and the questionable private polling that gave the Libs false hope?
If not, he was badly advised from within.
He’s a smart operator who doesn’t willingly accept defeat and usually has an alternative path to pursue.
It would cut him to the core to have presided over such a political hiding, from which he now can’t hide as his presidency comes to an end.
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SA Liberal president Senator Leah Blyth lashed out at the federal campaign, presumably including Olsen’s involvement, but Olsen has kept strangely quiet with the bulldust still settling.
Funnily enough, I had a good chat to Olsen and Dean Brown (not together) at the Adelaide 500 car race last November, expressing my views on where the Liberal party was heading after the David Speirs leadership disaster.
Both carefully took note, but without really offering their opinions.
My main thrust was directed to a state party is disarray with time running out before they faced another near-impossible challenge, and my views haven’t changed since last weekend.
If voter results from Boothby and Sturt alone are repeated next March, the Libs could be wiped out in at least five suburban seats, including Tarzia’s own Hartley, Morialta, Bragg, Sturt and Morphett.
Colton and even Frome are also on the potential chopping block.
There is undeniable panic behind closed doors as many Liberal MPs now contemplate life after politics, because the exit door is looming.
On the other side, Labor is finding it hard to contain its glee and a degree of contempt aimed at one person.
Seats in the city’s northeast were once considered marginal for good reason, because they swung with the breeze.
But King, Newland and others are now comfortable with good female politicians holding the fort and now awaiting their turn in Labor’s ministerial succession plan.
The powerful Labor machine can concentrate on former Liberal strongholds and attack them with a tour de force.
Senior attack dog minister Tom Koutsantonis is already demonising the likes of powerful conservative Senator Alex Antic, accusing him of controlling the Liberal state division.
He’s assuring the public that Antic equals Dutton, which, in turn, equals Donald Trump.
It’s a long bow indeed, but expect those taunts to go all the way to the state election.
The Liberal shadow cabinet has already met since the disastrous federal result, showing a mixture of anger, disbelief and concern.
Their now weekly get-togethers are akin to the worst Stawell Gift runner starting from the back marker, and therefore with absolutely no chance of crossing the line first.
They know it’s a case of preserving what you have rather than any real claim of winning government.
But one wise head told me this week, it’s because of people like Olsen and other factional warlords that Liberal woes have reached such heights and are likely to continue.
Mike Smithson is weekend presenter and political analyst for 7News.
