Election call: Labor wins power as battleground seats see One Nation surge
Early counting is showing One Nation clobbering the Liberal Party across southern and northern suburbs of Adelaide and regional SA. But Labor is making a return to power. Read our running update on key seats in the 2026 state election.
Early voting is seeing One Nation smashing the Liberal vote across regional South Australia. Voters are also particularly punishing Liberal candidates across the northern and southern suburbs of Adelaide.
Labor is well ahead in early counting in SA with pundits already calling a win for Peter Malinauskas to be returned as Premier.
Greens Leader Robert Simms says his party has been “raising the alarm” about the rise of One Nation for some time and its “simplistic solutions” blaming migrants for growing living costs. “The reality is people are angry right now,” he says.
Early results are showing positive swings toward the Greens, but not on the scale of One Nation.
BLACK
Sitting member: Alex Dighton (ALP)
Margin (at the 2024 by-election): 9.9 per cent to ALP
2026 winner: Undecided
Background:
Black is named after artist Dorrit Black and takes in the south-western coastal communities of Hallett Cove, O’Halloran Hill, Seacliff, and Sheidow Park.
Why is it a hotspot?
Black is the stomping ground of David Speirs, the former leader of the SA Liberal party. He was convicted last year of supplying cocaine.
Speirs announced he was contesting Black just one month ago, with the now-independent politician running a campaign focused on the algal bloom.
He is fighting against Labor’s Alex Dighton, who took the seat from the Liberal Party at a November 2024 by-election with a 12 per cent swing to the government.
Fair Go For Australians founder Sarah Game’s mother, Jennifer Game, is also running in the seat.
HEYSEN
Sitting member: Josh Teague (LIB)
Margin: 1.9 per cent to LIB
2026 winner: Undecided
Background:
Heysen covers most of the Adelaide Hills and McLaren Vale. It has been held by the Liberals since its inception in 1969.
Why is it a hotspot?
Despite being Liberal heartland, the Greens are bullish on their prospects to take Heysen, previously saying they need just 1000 extra votes to win.
In 2022, the Greens achieved an 8.7 per cent swing towards the party, claiming 20.7 per cent of the total first preference votes.
Liberal MP Josh Teague holds Heysen with a slim margin of under two per cent. He is being challenged by Bridgewater local and Greens candidate Genevieve Dawson-Scott and Labor’s Marissa Bell.
COLTON
Sitting member: Matt Cowdrey (LIB)
Margin: 4.8 per cent to LIB
Background:
Another coastal suburb, Colton captures Adelaide’s western suburbs of Glenelg, Henley Beach and Lockleys .
Why is it a hotspot?
Algal bloom and the government’s handling of the aquatic crisis are contentious issues in Colton, which covers the western suburbs of Adelaide – and Labor is backing Aria Bolkus, 29, daughter of Labor stalwart Nick Bolkus, who died on Christmas morning, aged 75.
She is up against Liberal Bec Sutton, who was picked by her party after Cowdrey retired, but with Labor set to dominate, it is one of many seats across the state that could fall to the Malinauskas machine.
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KAVEL
Sitting member: Dan Cregan (Independent)
Margin: 25.4 per cent to IND
Background:
Kavel is the Adelaide Hills through and through. It captures Mount Barker and much of the eastern portion of the Hills.
Why is it a hotspot?
Handling of urban development at Mount Barker has been a contentious topic for both major parties.
Labor has promised a $200 million plan to tackle the issue if re-elected, while the Liberals would provide a $56 million no-interest loan to the council over 10 years to help deliver infrastructure.
Current Independent MP Dan Cregan retires this election, but a look at two-party preferred votes suggest the Liberals could win in 2026. Labor’s David Leach and the Liberal’s Bradley Orr are going head-to-head tonight.
NGADJURI
Sitting member: Penny Pratt (LIB)
Margin: 8.1 per cent to LIB
Background:
Previously called Frome, Ngadjuri has new boundaries this election. It stretches north-eastwards from the Gawler River and captures agricultural land north of Adelaide.
Why is it a hotspot?
Labor’s Tony Piccolo has moved to contest Ngadjuri from his neighbouring Light electorate. Whether he can nab the Liberal-held seat from Penny Pratt is yet to be seen.
Boundary changes could have an impact, with analysts suggesting the margin could fall to an estimated 3.2 per cent.
MACKILLOP
Sitting member: Nick McBride (IND)
Margin: 22.6 per cent to LIB
Background:
A south-east seat sandwiched between the Southern Ocean to the west and the Victorian border and includes the picturesque coastal towns of Beachport and Robe along with rural towns like Bordertown, Keith, Millicent, Naracoorte, and Penola.
Why is it a hot spot?
Wealthy pastoralist Nick McBride quit the Liberal party citing “dark forces” and was running as an independent.
He was campaigning wearing an ankle bracelet after being charged for the alleged assault of his wife, one he denies.
Liberal candidate Rebekah Rosser, a former adviser in both the Olsen and Howard Liberal governments, is likely to win the seat.
DUNSTAN
Sitting member: Cressida O’Hanlon (ALP)
Margin (at the 2024 by-election): 0.8 per cent to ALP
Background:
Named after former Premier Don Dunstan, a leafy inner-suburban electorate covering Norwood, Payneham and Hackney.
Why is it a hotspot?
Dunstan is one of the tightest contests in the state election, and is alive for both major parties and even the Greens.
A knife-edge by-election – just 400 votes got Labor MP Cressida O’Hanlon over the line – in 2024 was caused by former Liberal Premier Steven Marshall retiring from state parliament after the party’s 2022 election defeat.
Returning contender Anna Finizio picked up the largest share of first preference votes in the by-election, but Greens preferences got Labor over the line.
MOUNT GAMBIER
Sitting member: Vacant after former Independent MP Troy Bell was sentenced to prison for theft.
Margin: 13.1 per cent to IND
Background:
A far south-eastern seat taking in the city of Mount Gambier and stretching to the Southern Ocean.
Why is it a hotspot?
This seat has been vacant for six months since Independent and former Liberal Troy Bell was convicted of fraud and jailed.
His former staff member Travis Fatchen is fighting for the spot against Liberal opponent, farmer and logistics worker Lamorna Alexander.
HARTLEY
Sitting member: Vincent Tarzia (LIB)
Margin: 3.6 per cent to LIB
Background:
Named after John Anderson Hartley, the public servant responsible for creating much of South Australia’s public education system. The seat covers Adelaide’s northeast, taking in suburbs including Campbelltown, Hectorville, Magill, Newton, Paradise and Tranmere.
Why is it a hotspot?
Labor is targeting the seat held by former Liberal Leader Vincent Tarzia with both the Premier and Prime Minister at booths on Saturday morning to support Labor candidate Jenn Roberts.
HAMMOND
Sitting member: Adrian Pederick (LIB)
Margin: 5.1 per cent to LIB
Background:
Hammond is named after Ruby Hammond – the first Indigenous woman to stand for Federal Parliament. It covers the bulk of the state’s south-east, across 18,000 sqkm.
Why is it a hotspot?
Pastoralists in the state’s south-east could make or break the seat of Hammond for the Liberal party.
It is another seat on a close margin for the Liberal party, and with Labor expected to dominate, the party could pick it off the opposition.
A predicted surge in One Nation votes regionally could also come into play on election night, but Labor has placed its bets on Mid Murray Council Mayor Simone Bailey.
MORPHETT
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Sitting member: Stephen Patterson (LIB)
Margin: 4.5 per cent to LIB
Background:
Morphett is another western suburbs seat on the city’s coastline, capturing Glenelg in the west and up to the airport at its northern border.
Why is it a hotspot?
The government’s response to the algal bloom crisis could again be a problem for the Labor party, but Liberal MP Stephen Patterson holds Morphett with just a 4.5 per cent margin.
At the 2022 election, Labor’s Cameron Hurst landed a 10 per cent swing towards his party, while the Greens also gained 7.3 per cent.
WRIGHT
Sitting member: Blair Boyer (ALP)
Margin: 11.9 per cent to ALP
Background:
Metropolitain seat Wright takes in a small area in Adelaide’s outer north-east, and includes suburbs like Modbury Heights, Salisbury South and Redwood Park.
Why is it a hotspot?
The Labor party released a bombshell in the second-to-last week of the election, campaign chief and Wright MP Blair Boyer revealing comments that the Liberals’ candidate for the seat Carston Woodhouse said on a podcast.
Woodhouse was then dumped by the Liberals after he described homosexuality and feminism as “demonic”.
It’s held strongly by Labor, but whether the One Nation vote has an impact on the electorate remains to be seen.
UNLEY
Sitting member: David Pisoni (LIB)
Margin: 2.2 per cent to LIB
Background:
The district of Unley captures the inner-southern suburbs of Adelaide, like Unley, Goodwood and Wayville.
Why is it a hotspot?
With the retirement of longstanding Unley MP, Liberal David Pisoni, the marginal seat is up for grabs by Labor.
Alice Rolls is waving the red flag, while Rosalie Rotolo hopes to hold onto the blue-chip city seat.
WAITE
Sitting member: Catherine Hutchesson (ALP)
Margin: 4 per cent to ALP
Background:
Waite covers Adelaide’s inner south-eastern foothills. The leafy suburbs of Springfield, Netherby and Belair are captured by the boundary.
Why is it a hot spot?
Labor holds Waite on a slim margin, the seat traditionally a safe Liberal seat.
MP Catherine Hutchesson was the first Labor member to take the win there in 2022, beating out now-Liberal party secretary Alex Hyde with a massive 11.4 per cent swing.
But the wildcard Liberal candidate and former journalist Frank Pangallo – who used to sit in the Upper House with Nick Xenophon’s SA BEST party – could turn the tide for the opposition.
MORIALTA
Sitting member: John Gardner (LIB)
Margin: 1.4 per cent to LIB
Background:
Morialta covers Adelaide’s outer eastern suburbs from Vista, Newton, Rostrevor, and parts of Magill.
Why is it a hotspot?
Gardner, a former education minister in the Marshall government and deputy Liberal leader is retiring after a melanoma scare to spend more time with his family.
He has held the seat since 2010 and leaves it vulnerable to Labor’s candidate Matthew Marozzi, who has name recognition locally since running for the same seat in 2022.
FLINDERS
Sitting member: Sam Telfer (LIB)
Margin: 3 per cent to LIB
Background:
The electorate is named for Captain Matthew Flinders, who mapped the coastline of the Eyre Peninsula in the early 1800s – an area the seat largely covers, including Port Lincoln and Ceduna.
Why is it a hotspot?
Telfer’s Liberal margin was diminished in 2022 after facing a challenge from an independent Liz Habermann – who is not running again.
The long-time conservative seat was held by the Nationals from 1973–1989, and SA National Dylan Cowley hopes to revive the seat for his party.
However, Telfer’s bigger threat is from One Nation’s Brenton Hincks, after recent polling showed regional seats like his were the most vulnerable to the orange wave.
BRAGG
Sitting member: Jack Batty (LIB)
Margin at the 2022 by-election: 8.2 per cent to LIB
Background:
Bragg covers inner south-east suburbs between the Adelaide CBD and lower Adelaide Hills, including Dulwich, Glenside, Burnside and Stonyfell.
Why is it a hotspot?
Why it is a hotspot: The seat has been held by the Liberal party since its creation and was secured by Jack Batty in a 2023 by-election after former Deputy Premier Vicki Chapman retired.
But the seat on the city outskirts is under threat from a centrist Labor team with polling suggesting the margin is the best thing Batty’s got going for him, while battling a net negative popularity rating.
NARUNGGA
Sitting member: Fraser Ellis (IND)
Margin: 8.3 per cent to IND
Background:
The electorate was formerly known as Goyder until 2018 when it was renamed after the traditional owners of Yorke Peninsula, the also stretches to the towns of Snowtown and parts of Port Pirie.
Why is it a hotspot?
The seat and its past name Goyder has been a safe Liberal seat since 1970 but has been independent since 2022 when former Liberal Fraser Ellis was re-elected.
Ellis was disendorsed by the Liberal party after he was charged with allegedly misusing parliamentary funds following an ICAC investigation. He was found guilty in 2024 and is appealing the conviction.
His seat is another that could fall to the “orange wave” if regional support for One Nation, as indicated in pre-election polling, translates to the ballot box, with a popular Liberal candidate in former Yorke Peninsula Council deputy Mayor Tania Stock.
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