AFL finals form guide: Crows need to defy history
The Crows have made just one change for their finals challenge against Hawthorn tonight but they’ll have to break a historic run – the Hawks haven’t exited the finals in straight sets for nearly 40 years.
Adelaide replaced the inexperienced Rory Atkins with perennial sub Jarryd Lyons for tonight’s semi-final at the MCG, while Hawthorn made two changes.
The Hawks dropped 2014 finals hero Will Langford, opting for the speed of Billy Hartung. Ryan Schoenmakers was preferred to Matt Spangher as a replacement for injured forward Jack Gunston (ankle).
Langford was a revelation this time last year but has been dropped for the second time this season and will play for VFL affiliate Box Hill in search of better form.
“Will’s a little bit unlucky, but his form hasn’t quite been where we need it to be,” Hawthorn football boss Chris Fagan told the club’s website.
“Billy Hartung’s come into the team to provide some extra run and speed, which we think will be useful at the MCG.”
Fagan said Schoenmakers brings the Hawks versatility.
“He can play either back or forward, which allows James Frawley to either play back or forward, so we could do anything there with those guys,” he said.
The Crows had a light training run at AAMI Stadium yesterday morning before heading across the border – the team’s third straight Victorian road trip.
Interim coach Scott Camporeale says his team won’t try to copy West Coast’s blueprint for beating the Hawks, after the Eagles dismantled the defending premiers in last week’s qualifying final.
“We’ll focus in on what we want to do … we would be silly to sit here and say we’re going to do exactly what West Coast did because we’re not West Coast,” he told reporters on Thursday.
“We have got enough firepower forward, we have got a really strong midfield, and our defence has held up really well so we’ll be backing those things in.
You might like
“You can fall into the trap, if you start watching opposition teams and trying to pick things out that they have done really well, because it’s hard to implement.
“We will be backing our systems in to get the job done.”
Camporeale said the team had recovered physically from last week’s fast-paced elimination final against the Bulldogs.
Meanwhile, Kieran Jack will miss Sydney’s crunch semi-final with North Melbourne after coach John Longmire decided on a low-risk approach with the Swans co-captain.
Jack, 28, looked done and dusted for the season after suffering a medial ligament strain in the club’s round 23 win over Gold Coast.
A quicker than anticipated recovery had Jack in the frame for a miraculous recovery, egged on when teammate Luke Parker said on Tuesday he would take the field against the unchanged Kangaroos.
After training on Thursday, Longmire made the call to make his star midfielder wait another week, suggesting Jack should be fine to head to Perth to play West Coast should the Swans progress.
“He was looking okay and was close, but we just didn’t want to risk him getting injured in such a cut-throat game,” Longmire told the club’s website.
“But the good sign is he was very close.”
The Swans have returned defender Nick Smith to the team for Sam Reid, who suffered a season-ending hamstring injury against Fremantle in their qualifying final.
Rhyce Shaw, who will play his last AFL match in Sydney on Saturday night, said Smith’s inclusion would hugely benefit the Swans – and perhaps give him the chance for a foray forward or two.
“He’s the premier small defender in the competition, so it’s a real big plus for us,” he said.
“It allows me to run off a little bit more knowing that Nick has got my back all the time.”
FRIDAY, Sept 18
Semi-final
Hawthorn v Adelaide at MCG 7.50pm
Head to head: Hawks 18 Crows 18
Stay informed, daily
Head to head in finals: Hawks 2 Crows 1
Last clash: round 12 2015 – Hawks 17.12 (114) bt Crows 12.13 (85) at Adelaide Oval
Last finals clash: 2012 preliminary final – Hawks 13.19 (97) bt Crows 14.8 (92) at MCG
Tab Sportsbet: Hawks $1.33 Crows $3.35
William Hill: Hawks $1.32 Crows $3.40
Surely reigning premiers Hawthorn won’t put in another stinker like they did in their qualifying final loss to the Eagles. The Hawks have the finals experience and talent to immediately bounce back but will be wary of the Crows, who are flying high after a thrilling seven-point triumph against the Western Bulldogs. And while both coaches won’t want it, the rest of the footy world will: a shootout between two clubs with an unashamed attacking streak – the Hawks are the league’s top-scorers and Adelaide third-highest; Hawthorn average most inside 50s a game, Adelaide second-most. Much will hinge on Hawthorn’s renowned slick ball use: if the Crows can disrupt that with Eagles-like pressure, they’re a chance. But history is against them – the Hawks haven’t exited the finals in straight sets for 38 years.
Key: Taylor Walker. The Adelaide captain was widely, and justifiably, acclaimed for his elimination final heroics. He’ll find the going tougher against the hardened Hawks defence and will need to break Brian Lake for the Crows to spring an upset win.
Tip: Hawks by 27 points
SATURDAY, Sept 19
Sydney v North Melbourne at ANZ Stadium 7.20pm
Semi-final
Head to head: Swans 83 Kangaroos 72 drawn 1
Head to head in finals: Swans 2 Kangaroos 1
Last clash: round 11 2015 – Swans 14.7 (91) bt Kangaroos 10.15 (75) at Etihad Stadium
Last clash in finals: 2014 preliminary final – Swans 19.22 (136) bt Kangaroos 9.11 (65) at Stadium Australia
Tab Sportsbet: Swans $1.55 Kangaroos $2.45
William Hill: Swans $1.54 Kangaroos $2.50
North return to the scene of their humiliating preliminary final drubbing last year, when the Swans smashed them by 71 points. But this time Sydney appear most vulnerable with a host of injuries to key players, including captain Kieren Jack who just missed selection, and Sam Reid’s season-ending hamstring last week. But Sydney’s spirit remains intact and was on show in last week’s plucky loss to Fremantle in which wayward goalkicking cruelled their winning chances. The Kangas, who came from behind to add another chapter to Richmond’s book of finals agony, will fancy themselves – Todd Goldstein should rule the rucks, their defence is sound and they possess tall attacking weapons in Drew Petrie, Jarrad Waite and Ben Brown to trouble Sydney’s stingy defence.
Key: Without Lance Franklin and Reid, Sydney’s scoring power hinges on Kurt Tippett. The output of the power forward, likely to be pitted against Scott Thompson, will go a long way to determining which club extends their season into a preliminary final.
Tip: North by 8 points
– with AAP
Want to see more stories from InDaily SA in your Google search results?
- Click here to set InDaily SA as a preferred source.
- Tick the box next to "InDaily SA". That's it.
