AFL tipster’s guide: Falling like flies
Adelaide has made four enforced changes to its team to tackle Gold Coast – but that doesn’t come close to the Suns’ merry-go-round.
Gold Coast has brought in former Richmond and Brisbane tagger Andrew Raines for tomorrow’s match in Queensland. He’s one of seven players to benefit from Gold Coast’s recent discipline and injury woes.
Raines will make his club debut for the Suns, who also added Clay Cameron, Rory Thompson, Aaron Hall, Zac Smith, Luke Russell and Mitch Hallahan to their side.
Suns coach Rodney Eade noted ruefully that he had a total player pool of just 25 from which to select this week’s 22-man team.
The Crows had their own issues at the selection table.
Ricky Henderson (pectoral), Cam Ellis-Yolmen (hamstring), Josh Jenkins (hip) and Richard Douglas (foot) were all enforced omissions for Adelaide, with debutant Jake Lever among the replacements.
Four players have come into Port Adelaide’s extended 25-man squad to play West Coast at the Adelaide Oval on Mother’s Day.
Brendon Ah Chee, Karl Amon, Jarman Impey and Cameron O’Shea are into the squad, while Jared Polec is out due to a foot injury that will keep him of his feet for six weeks.
Despite concerns about his elbow, West Coast forward Josh Kennedy has been named in the Eagles team. Mark Hutchings, Brant Colledge and Jackson Nelson come into 25-man West Coast squad.
Tiger playmaker Brett Deledio, who hasn’t played since round one due to an achilles injury, is one of four changes that Tigers coach Damien Hardwick made for Saturday’s clash with North Melbourne in Hobart.
Ben Griffiths, Nathan Gordon and Dylan Grimes are also back for Richmond, while Corey Ellis (leg) was joined on the sidelines by the axed trio of Ty Vickery, Ben Lennon and Sam Lloyd.
The Kangaroos recalled Lachie Hansen, Jarrad Waite and Luke McDonald at the expense of Aaron Black, Kayne Turner and Ben Jacobs.
Thomas, Levi Casboult and Troy Menzel were included in Carlton’s 25-man squad for their match against Brisbane on Sunday.
Former Lions forward Lachie Henderson (hamstring) will miss the chance to play against his old club, who added Matthew Leuenberger and James Aish to their extended squad.
St Kilda were strengthened by the inclusion of old hands Leigh Montagna and Nick Riewoldt for Saturday’s clash with Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium.
The Bulldogs will be minus Lin Jong (hand) and Matthew Boyd (general soreness), with Lachie Hunter to play his first AFL game since being cleared of breaching the league’s betting code.
Veteran Essendon defender Dustin Fletcher (groin) and Fremantle counterpart Luke McPharlin (calf) will miss Saturday’s match in Perth, where Alex Pearce will debut for the Dockers.
Collingwood confirmed this year’s Anzac medallist Paul Seedsman will miss Friday night’s game against Geelong due to a groin injury.
Jackson Ramsay (shin) and Corey Gault (omitted) are also out for the Magpies, while the Cats dropped three players to pave the way for Mitch Clark, Nakia Cockatoo, Josh Cowan and Rhys Stanley to return.
Sydney also omitted three players – Harry Cunningham, Craig Bird and Dean Towers – after a shock SCG loss to the Bulldogs.
Versatile big man Sam Reid (calf) and young gun Isaac Heeney (ankle) have recovered from their respective minor setbacks, while pint-sized tackling machine Ben McGlynn was also promoted for the Swans’ battle with Melbourne at the MCG.
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Father-son selection Billy Stretch will debut for the Demons, who dumped Jack Grimes, Jordie McKenzie, Viv Michie and Mark Jamar.
Paul Puopolo and Jed Anderson were the men that Hawthorn called on to fill the void left by suspended veterans Jordan Lewis and Luke Hodge on Saturday against Greater Western Sydney.
The Giants recalled Matt Buntine, Adam Kennedy and Zac Williams in place of Nathan Wilson, Josh Kelly and Aidan Corr.
FRIDAY, May 8
Collingwood v Geelong at MCG 7.50pm
Head to Head: Magpies 129 Cats 96 drawn 1
Last clash: Round 3 2014 – Cats 12.15 (87) bt Magpies 11.10 (76) at MCG
Tab Sportsbet: Magpies $1.62 Cats $2.30
William Hill: Magpies $1.65 Cats $2.25
Collingwood sit second on the ladder after banking three wins on the trot. They boast a decent recent record against Geelong, having only lost once since the 2011 grand final defeat. None of those Geelong sides were as inexperienced as the one running out on Friday night, one of the main reasons the Magpies start favourites. Mitch Clark returns for the Cats and Anzac Day medallist Paul Seedsman is a significant loss for the `Pies.
Key: The battle of the talismanic behemoths. Travis Cloke and Tom Hawkins are two of the strongest key forwards in the league and will have a big say in who gets up here.
Tip: Magpies by 20 points
SATURDAY, May 9
North Melbourne v Richmond at Blundstone Arena 1.45pm
Head to Head: Kangaroos 69 Tigers 82 drawn 2
Last clash: Round 12 2014 – Kangaroos 17.14 (116) bt Tigers 13.10 (88) at Etihad Stadium
Tab Sportsbet: Kangaroos $1.45 Tigers $2.75
William Hill: Kangaroos $1.43 Tigers $2.85
These two teams came into this season with lofty goals, but so far they’ve spent a lot of time with their wheels spinning in the dirt. North have had the tougher draw and should take care of Richmond, who are playing in Hobart for the first time. Richmond regained Brett Deledio and Ben Griffiths, while Ty Vickery was dropped after only one game back in the senior team.
Key: Todd Goldstein is the league’s top ruckman so far this season and will be a massive challenge for Ivan Maric, who has also enjoyed solid form. If Maric can at least blunt Goldstein’s influence at the stoppages, Richmond take a big step towards an upset win.
Tip: Kangaroos by 30 points
Western Bulldogs v St Kilda at Etihad Stadium 2.10pm
Head to Head: Bulldogs 72 Saints 79 drawn 3
Last clash: Round 20 2014 – Bulldogs 18.14 (122) bt Saints 15.9 (99) at Etihad Stadium
Tab Sportsbet: Bulldogs $1.25 Saints $4.00
William Hill: Bulldogs $1.28 Saints $3.70
The Bulldogs’ finals aspirations will undergo a different sort of examination here. Their last-start win over Sydney earned appropriate acclamation, but it will count for little if they lose to St Kilda. The Saints will be boosted by returning veterans Nick Riewoldt and Leigh Montagna, but should be outclassed if the `Dogs play at their best.
Key: How will the Bulldogs handle the growing hype? Pundits didn’t expect Luke Beveridge to accomplish much in his first season at the helm, now they’re lining up to declare his charges should make the finals after a 4-1 start to the season and better-than-handy draw.
Tip: Bulldogs by 24 points
Greater Western Sydney v Hawthorn at Spotless Stadium 4.35pm
Head to Head: Giants 0 Hawks 3
Last clash: Round 11 2014 – Hawks 14.10 (94) bt Giants 13.9 (87) at MCG
Tab Sportsbet: Giants $4.60 Hawks $1.20
William Hill: Giants $4.25 Hawks $1.22
It’s an ideal time to be playing the reigning premiers, if ever there is such a thing. Influential veterans Luke Hodge and Jordan Lewis are out due to suspension, while defenders Brian Lake and James Frawley remain sidelined due to injury (?????). The Giants have form when it comes to testing Hawthorn, last year they went down by seven points at the MCG. This will be a good test to see how far they’ve come since then.
Key: A humbling 87-point loss to West Coast was a step back for the Giants, who have otherwise had a promising start to their campaign. What sort of mentality will they take into this game? What sort of physical state will they be in after the trip to Perth?
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Tip: Hawks by 50 points
Gold Coast v Adelaide at Metricon Stadium 5.10pm
Head to Head: Suns 0 Crows 6
Last clash: Round 11 2014 – Crows 16.13 (109) bt Suns 11.11 (77) at Adelaide Oval
Tab Sportsbet: Suns $6.25 Crows $1.12
William Hill: Suns $6.25 Crows $1.12
The Suns posted their first won of the season in round five, but there’s been nothing to celebrate this week. Rodney Eade has made seven changes – Jack Martin, Seb Tape and Jarrod Garlett are out due to injury while Steven May is suspended. Far more galling for Eade was club-imposed bans on Harley Bennell, Trent McKenzie and Brandon Matera for breaking a booze ban. The Suns are still missing Gary Ablett and a host of other key players, so it’s safe to expect a trouncing.
Key: The Suns rank third in the league for contested possessions. Can they keep that up, show a bit of fight and ensure the margin is at least respectable?
Tip: Crows by 60 points
Melbourne v Sydney at MCG 7.20pm
Head to Head: Demons 92 Swans 109 drawn 2
Last clash: Round 6 2014 – Swans 9.15 (69) bt Demons 5.8 (38) at MCG
Tab Sportsbet: Demons $5.25 Swans $1.16
William Hill: Demons $5.00 Swans $1.17
Master meets apprentice in the annual Pink Lady match, which raises awareness and funding for Breast Cancer Network Australia. Swans coach John Longmire will be desperate to atone after a shock loss at home to the Bulldogs, while his predecessor Paul Roos was suitably unimpressed with the Demons’ 68-point defeat to Fremantle.
Key: Roos criticised his players for slipping into “survival mode” against the Dockers. They’ll need to play much bolder football to get close to the Swans. It will start in the middle, can they curb the influence of Kieren Jack, Josh Kennedy, Dan Hannebery and Luke Parker?
Tip: Swans by 60 points
Fremantle v Essendon at Domain Stadium 8.10pm
Head to Head: Dockers 10 Bombers 18
Last clash: Round 4 2014 – Dockers 18.5 (113) bt Bombers 9.6 (60) at Domain Stadium
Tab Sportsbet: Dockers $1.22 Bombers $4.35
William Hill: Dockers $1.24 Bombers $4.00
The undefeated Dockers top the table after five rounds, sitting pretty after meaningful home wins over premiership contenders Sydney and Port Adelaide. Freo look a more potent outfit this year compared to 2014, with the speed of their transition from defence to attack earning a lot of praise. Captain Matthew Pavlich and Michael Walters stay in despite last week’s head knocks, and Ross Lyon’s men should account for the inconsistent Bombers, who only just got over the line against St Kilda.
Key: Essendon have been beaten in contested ball in all five games of the season. It will be pretty hard to remedy that trend against the contested-ball kings.
Tip: Dockers by 40 points
SUNDAY, May 10
Carlton v Brisbane Lions at Etihad Stadium 3.20pm
Head to Head: Blues 27 Lions 17
Last clash: Round 11 2014 – Lions 14.14 (98) bt Blues 13.13 (91) at Gabba
Tab Sportsbet: Blues $1.26 Lions $3.90
William Hill: Blues $1.25 Lions $4.00
A battle of the battlers. Brisbane’s season of woe plunged to new depths with a 64-point loss to Gold Coast, which was followed by revelations of a physical clash between coach Justin Leppitsch and reserves player Zac O’Brien. Carlton aren’t faring much better. Blues coach Mick Malthouse admitted he felt “depressed” after his record-breaking 715th game as coach ended in a 75-point loss to Collingwood.
Key: Effort and errors. Both sides had a lot of the latter and very little of the former in round five.
Tip: Blues by 20 points
Port Adelaide v West Coast at Adelaide Oval 4.40pm
Head to Head: Power 17 Eagles 9
Last clash: Round 5 2014 – Power 10.10 (70) bt Eagles 7.14 (56) at Domain Stadium
Tab Sportsbet: Power $1.17 Eagles $5.10
William Hill: Power $1.17 Eagles $5.00
Port dropped their opening two games of the season but managed to get things back on track with wins over North Melbourne, Hawthorn and Adelaide. Jared Polec is out due to a serious foot injury, but the Power are in ominous form and should grab this chance to enter the top eight.
Key: Key forward Jay Schulz booted five goals in last Sunday’s Showdown, while Paddy Ryder kicked three. In sharp contrast, Eagles key defenders Eric Mackenzie and Mitch Brown are nursing season-ending knee injuries.
Tip: Power by 40 points
– with AAP
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