Internal Liberal polling had Daniel Woodyatt, an independent candidate in last month’s Fisher by-election, leading the race for the key southern suburbs seat less than a week before polling day.

Party sources have told InDaily the Opposition’s vote collapsed in the seat after then-Federal Defence Minister David Johnston’s infamous comments – 10 days out from the election – that he wouldn’t trust Adelaide-based shipbuilder ASC to “build a canoe”.

Labor insiders revelled in the gaffe, privately claiming credit after a calculated Question Time campaign by Senator Penny Wong to provoke the accident-prone minister.

But even before Johnston’s own-goal, which contributed to his subsequent sacking, the Liberals believed they were in trouble in the seat, vacant since the shock death of veteran independent – and former Liberal minister – Bob Such in October.

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InDaily has learned that Liberal polling in the seat suggested 15 per cent of respondents had indicated they would vote independent – even before Woodyatt announced his high-profile candidacy, crucially endorsed by Such’s widow Lyn.

As the campaign progressed, Labor was running “a distant third” on primary votes, tarnished by the contentious Emergency Services Levy hike.

Due to Australia’s complex preferential voting system, the prospect of Woodyatt finishing first or second on primaries would have ensured he won the seat, as he would have garnered the bulk of ALP preferences.

InDaily understands that a sample of around 400 voters taken the Wednesday before polling day had the independent in first place on primaries. The Liberals subsequently intensified their attacks on him. A complaint by Family First MLC Robert Brokenshire about World War Two imagery in the promotional film-clip of a song by the now-defunct band The Spooks, in which Woodyatt played drums, also garnered media attention two days before polls closed.

Liberal insiders say they were hamstrung by the polling, unable to attack Labor on its ESL Achilles heel. They insist the Opposition’s only hope of snaring victory was to push Woodyatt into third place, while hoping Labor didn’t benefit from the lion’s share of his split preference ticket and praying enough voters had cast early Liberal ballots before the Johnston gaffe.

In the end Woodyatt finished with 23.3 per cent of the primary vote, behind Labor’s Nat Cook on 26.7 and Liberal Heidi Harris on 36.1. Cook won the two-party contest by just nine votes after a recount.

Woodyatt still has not publicly confirmed whether or not he intends to challenge the result in the court of disputed returns. He was the subject of two contentious Liberal mailouts, one of which Electoral Commissioner Kay Mousley ordered withdrawn.

The commissioner told InDaily unsuccessful candidates still have until early February to lodge a court challenge.

“It just gets lodged in court and then the court notifies me,” she said.

Woodyatt has not returned InDaily’s calls but sent through a text message which simply said: “No update at this stage.”