Richardson: Marshall’s existential crisis
It’s only early October, for God’s sake! Daylight saving just started last weekend.
But already, I’m living on a diet of the festively-packaged mince pies that adorn my local supermarket aisles. I can’t resist the damn things.
It’s not just a question of “who ate all the pies” either – the marketing of Yuletide cheer has already begun apace. ‘Tis the season to be jolly well sick and tired of the commoditisation of Christmas spirit.
For Jay Weatherill, though, it really is like Christmas in October. He’s off to COAG today, as the only Labor face at the table; truly, all his Christmases have come at once!
Weatherill’s gambit since around this time last year has been to redraw the battlelines of the state electoral contest.
He is the underdog, downtrodden Labor Premier; the leader of his Opposition is Tony Abbott.
Since the Coalition leader’s occupied the Lodge, Weatherill has appeared ever so slightly preoccupied with him. From the outset, Labor’s internal polling told the party punters were concerned about federal issues, distrustful of the new Prime Minister.
To put it in Labor-speak: “They had a problem with Abbott.”
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The PM was always a natural as Opposition Leader; he was in his element doggedly belting an issue that made his opponents squirm. So it wasn’t hard for Weatherill to paint him as the de facto state Opposition Leader, even after he became Prime Minister.
He was aided, inadvertently but concertedly, by the local Liberals, who draped their actual Opposition Leader, Steven Marshall, in a cloak of invisibility.
They surmised staying largely outside the policy debate would prove a winning strategy, but it enabled – and entitled – Weatherill to frame that policy debate. And he’s gone on with it.
"By all accounts, in private discourse on things like road funding and the future of the federation, the Weatherill and Abbott Governments get along like a house on fire."
It’s fair to say that “bold” model of government the Premier spoke of when he fronted media flanked by Geoff Brock back in March never transpired. He has, as best we can tell, been rather reactive, refusing to countenance discussion on subjects such as GST expansion or toll roads. Never popular prospects, but certainly worthy of debate in the current climate, if you propose to lead a Government that actually does things, as opposed to complaining about them.
But what he has done is channel the bulk of his political energies into fighting the Commonwealth Government. As a campaign, it fits Weatherill’s narrative so perfectly one suspects he would have found an excuse to do so even if the feds hadn’t given him open invitation to do so by unveiling a budget raid on the states’ coffers, an ideological gambit further confounded by the political ineptitude with which it has been subsequently sold.
We already know the State Government has a million dollar annual budget set aside for its campaign against what it generally labels “Tony Abbott’s health and education cuts”, which are, in fact, “Tony Abbott’s much smaller health and education increases than he previously led us to believe”.
This week, Weatherill also unveiled a new report, entirely independent except that it was commissioned by the State Government, paid for by taxpayers and comes to exactly the same conclusion as Labor, effectively that Tony Abbott’s Health And Education Cuts™ hit those least able to afford them the hardest. Which is not to say that conclusion’s wrong, merely that, at $90,000, it’s an expensive “I told you so”.
Weatherill, though, won’t suggest alternate ways to balance the Coalition’s budget (“They have to take responsibility for this; it’s not my budget, it’s their budget!”), even though State Labor’s idea of “taking responsibility” for its own recent budget blowout is to raise taxes and blame everything on the feds.
By all accounts, in private discourse on things like road funding and the future of the federation, the Weatherill and Abbott Governments get along like a house on fire. In public, though, there’s no house, just fire. It’s as if, in the absence of serious opposition from their respective Oppositions, they genuinely revel in the political contest.
So yes, Christmas has come in October for Weatherill. He’ll swan into COAG, his new report on the budget impact of Tony Abbott’s Health And Education Cuts™ clutched to his bosom, just as he used to cradle his ever-present glossy manifesto throughout the election campaign. As the only Labor leader at a veritable Liberal love-in, he’ll be the star of the show with the Canberra press gallery, his fellow state premiers happily deferring to him to do all the Abbott-bashing on their behalf.
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After all, half of them face looming elections and are torn between partisan loyalty and having to defend Abbott’s bitter medicine.
As, indeed, is Steven Marshall, who is perennially marginalised by Weatherill’s political stoush with his federal brethren. The State Libs know there is no mileage for them in trying to defend Joe Hockey’s budget, and in any case it will only invite questions about their own policy positions on state matters such as the removal of Emergency Services Levy remissions, where their preferred policy is not to have a policy.
They could, of course, come out against Tony Abbott’s Health And Education Cuts™, but that would be politically awkward, effectively putting them on a unity ticket with Weatherill against the Coalition.
So the wisest course is probably silence, which as we all know is a tactic at which the Libs are well-versed.
Indeed, in contemplating the past week it occurred to me that Steven Marshall might well have been on annual leave, since I did not recall once seeing him. He seemed a bit put out when I checked this with him (he is not on annual leave, FYI), rightly pointing out he’d made numerous appearances in print and on morning radio (we media types can get a bit blinkered about our particular medium, I suppose) and chaired an industry forum at parliament house.
Perhaps the Libs are pondering the great existential conundrums, such as “If a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, does it really make a sound?” Or in this case, if an Opposition Leader holds an industry forum at parliament house and no-one is around to cover it, does it really matter?
Those who attended will doubtless answer in the affirmative, and hopefully the fruits of their collective deliberations will lend themselves to some future Liberal policy in the months and years hence. But the thing is, they’ll all vote Liberal anyway. Many more still need to be convinced. It may sound shallow, but in politics there’s not much point working diligently and constructively if you’ve got nothing to show for it.
Perhaps Weatherill’s Christmas in October is Silly Season for the Liberals, and we’ll simply coast along until Iain Evans decides it’s time to pull the pin and fire the parties up for an electoral contest, of sorts.
Until then, Weatherill’s federal wedge has given him a gift-wrapped political present: he gets to stride the national stage, preaching a simple message that simultaneously abrogates Labor’s responsibility for its own budget failings and resonates with an electorate wary of Tony Abbott’s Health And Education Cuts™.
It’s a tactical masterstroke.
But it’s not bold. It is, indeed, the oldest trick in the book.
Tom Richardson is InDaily’s political commentator and Channel Nine’s state political reporter.
