Coinciding with the anniversary of Australia’s involvement in World War 1, the Bob Hawke Prime Ministerial Centre was proud to recently present Professor Hugh White AO of the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, at the Australian National University.
In this extraordinary public lecture Professor White explained why strategic analysts and historians are re-visiting this period in history; drawing parallels between 1914 Europe and 2014 Asia. Such comparisons are important, as they teach us about the world we live in, Australia’s place in that world, and the choices we face today in the Asian Century. In understanding these parallels, we may avoid another global conflict.
Reflecting on the circumstances in which Europe’s leaders entered into war, Professor White explained how decades of rapid economic growth at the turn of the last century changed the distribution of power between countries. When power shifts – relationships change, creating a situation where new powers become more demanding, and those losing power become more defensive.
Professor White stressed the reasons why 1914 Europe was so politically fragile, but the war was not unavoidable: “the war was, like all wars, an act of human will”.
He challenged Australia’s widely held perception of itself “as innocent of the folly that caused the war”. While, in part our decision can be linked to imperial loyalty, our choices were also strategic and served our own self-interests. White stressed: “Australians made a clear choice to go to war”.
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Returning to the present day, Professor White, explained how the analogues of World War I, such as rapid global power shifts and underestimating the resolve of rivals, can be seen in 2014 Asia, predicting regional instability.
Professor White states that while “there are similarities between Europe in 1914 and Asia today which bear serious examination. Nothing in 1914, made a major European war inevitable, and nothing makes a major Asian war inevitable today.” However “as power shifts in Asia, the system must change”. The critical question that Professor White poses, is will this be peaceful or not?
As we face change in the region, Australia will need strong leadership to navigate through these challenges, and ensure we make sound decisions. The Hon. Bob Hawke AC responded to the lecture, outlining his view that Australia should focus on ‘cooperation not conflict’.
Relive Hawke Centre events, download the podcast of the 2014 Annual Hawke Lecture:
From the Great War to the Asian Century: what can we learn from 1914 about our place in the world
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