AFL form guide: Lynch returns for Crows
Adelaide forward Tom Lynch is a welcome boost to the Crows forward line for Sunday’s late afternoon Showdown at Adelaide Oval.
Lynch hasn’t played AFL since fracturing his jaw in a collision in the round seven clash with Melbourne.
Adelaide’s 2013 leading goalkicker, he’d been in top form until his latest injury setback.
Experienced defender Ben Rutten is missing from Adelaide’s squad of 25 while emerging talent Brad Crouch, forward Jason Porplzyia and defender Luke Thompson are in.
The squad will be trimmed to 22 late Friday afternoon.
Port Adelaide has named three key mid-defenders (Hamish Hartlett, Dom Cassisi and Jarman Impey) in its extended squad.
The weather forecast for Sunday is for scattered showers and a top of just 14.
Essendon dropped Tom Bellchambers, while Geelong regained Harry Taylor and lost Hamish McIntosh as they made four changes apiece for their must-win AFL blockbuster Friday night.
The Bombers also regained tall utility Jake Carlisle from a knee injury and he is likely to help Paddy Ryder in the ruck on Friday night at Etihad Stadium, given Bellchambers’ absence.
Bellchambers has played the last five games after returning from off-season ankle surgery, but has struggled for form.
Paul Chapman has targeted this first match against his old club – sure to be one of the highlights of the night – and Jackson Merrett is the fourth Bombers inclusion.
The Dons lost Jason Winderlich (suspension) and Mark Baguley (back), with Elliott Kavanagh also dropped.
Greater Western Sydney’s tough assignment at the SCG on Saturday became even harder when the Swans regained key forward Kurt Tippett and midfielder Ben McGlynn.
They lost Rhyce Shaw (ankle) and dropped Tom Derickx, while the Giants brought back Jeremy Cameron for Tom Boyd.
Veteran ruckman Dean Cox is back for West Coast ahead of Saturday’s western derby against Fremantle.
The Eagles also brought in Patrick McGinnity, with Scott Lycett and Jason Cripps dropped.
The in-form Dockers recalled Matt Taberner for Alex Silvagni (ribs)
Richmond and St Kilda regained big names for Saturday’s match at Etihad Stadium.
Chris Newman and Ty Vickery are back for the Tigers, who dropped Shaun Hampson and lost Aaron Edwards (groin).
The Saints will regain Leigh Montagna, along with Rhys Stanley and Luke Dunstan, and left out Farren Ray, Tom Lee and Brodie Murdoch.
Hawthorn continue to regain key players, with defender Ben Stratton returning for Saturday’s Launceston game against Gold Coast.
He came in for Ben Ross as the Suns lost Brandon Matera to a groin injury and brought in Jesse Lonergan.
Brisbane promoted Daniel McStay for his senior debut in Saturday night’s home game against North Melbourne.
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They also regained James Aish, Ashley McGrath and Ryan Lester.
Darcy Gardiner was rested and the Lions dropped Nick Robertson, Tom Cutler and Zac O’Brien.
Robin Nahas (shoulder) is out for North Melbourne and Max Warren is the inclusion.
The Western Bulldogs have lost captain Ryan Griffen (back) and Jordan Roughead (shoulder) for Sunday’s game against Melbourne.
FRIDAY
Geelong v Essendon at Etihad Stadium 7.20pm
Head to Head: Cats 93 Bombers 113 drawn 3
Last clash: Round 7 2013 – Cats 17.11 (113) bt Bombers 11.19 (85) at Etihad Stadium
Tab Sportsbet: Cats $1.33 Bombers $3.35
Sportingbet: Cats $1.33 Bombers $3.35
The dogs are barking for the Cats, with a growing number of pundits wondering if Geelong can finish in the top four. Certainly Essendon will fancy their chances, having won eight of their last nine matches against Geelong and grinding out a win over Adelaide six days ago. Paul Chapman has also primed himself for a big game against his old club. But the Cats still look a cut above the battling Bombers, who remain suspect in attack. The two teams made four changes apiece, with the ‘Dons dropping ruckman Tom Bellchambers.
Key: Mathew Stokes has been outstanding in the midfield for Geelong this season and his ankle injury is a major blow. The Bombers have done admirably at the stoppages without captain Jobe Watson and this might be an area where they can gain an advantage.
Tip: Cats by 20 points
SATURDAY
Hawthorn v Gold Coast at Aurora Stadium 1.15pm
Head to Head: Hawks 5 Suns 0
Last clash: Round 4 2014 – Hawks 23.10 (148) bt Suns 7.7 (49) at Metricon Stadium
Tab Sportsbet: Hawks $1.16 Suns $5.25
Sportingbet: Hawks $1.18 Suns $5.00
For a team who have had several stars out injured and are waiting for their coach to return from illness, the Hawks aren’t travelling too badly. They’ve been superb with four-straight wins and should be able to take care of the Suns. But Gold Coast are coming off an outstanding home win over Geelong. It was just what the they needed after three-straight losses and surely are headed to their first finals series. Still, the venue gives the Hawks a definite advantage.
Key: Little by little, Gold Coast’s reliance on Gary Ablett decreases. But their impressive young midfield comes up against one of the league’s best-drilled and most reliable group of onballers. Lewis, Burgoyne, Sewell and Hodge against Ablett, O’Meara and Prestia will be a beauty.
Tip: Hawks by 30 points
St Kilda v Richmond at Etihad Stadium 1.40pm
Head to Head: Saints 69 Tigers 105 drawn 3
Last clash: Round 14 2013 – Tigers 17.17 (119) bt Saints 8.7 (55) at MCG
Tab Sportsbet: Saints $5.50 Tigers $1.15
Sportingbet: Saints $5.00 Tigers $1.18
Remember round 10, when the Tigers mauled GWS and looked ready to put their season back on track? Four losses later, they’re at least showing signs of life again courtesy of a fighting effort against Sydney. But overall Richmond have been this season’s biggest disappointment and for all St Kilda’s many on-field problems, this is no certainty. Richmond have only kicked more than 100 points twice this season and managed just one goal after halftime against the Swans.
Key: St Kilda’s Jack Billings. This week’s Rising Star nominee had 25 touches on a half-forward flank in the loss to West Coast at a remarkable 100 per cent efficiency. This kid is the real deal.
Tip: Tigers by 20 points
Fremantle v West Coast at Patersons Stadium 4.10pm
Head to Head: Dockers 18 Eagles 21
Last clash: Round 7 2014 – Dockers 11.7 (73) bt Eagles 7.12 (54) at Patersons Stadium
Tab Sportsbet: Dockers $1.25 Eagles $4.00
Sportingbet: Dockers $1.26 Eagles $3.90
In the top four. Five-straight wins. The AFL’s stingiest defence. And Nathan Fyfe has re-signed. It’s coming together nicely mid-season for Fremantle, who have won their last four western derbies. The Eagles have won their last two and an upset this weekend would give their inconsistent season a massive boost. Ruckman Dean Cox is a handy inclusion. And local derbies are notorious for the underdog getting up.
Key: The Eagles have the talent to crack Fremantle’s outstanding defence, with their forward line featuring Josh Kennedy, Jack Darling and Jeremy McGovern. But as with so much about the Eagles this season, it’s about their talent performing on the day.
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Tip: Dockers by 30 points
Sydney v Greater Western Sydney at SCG 7.10pm
Head to Head: Swans 4 Giants 1
Last clash: Round 1 2014 – Giants 15.9 (99) bt Swans 9.13 (67) at Spotless Stadium
Tab Sportsbet: Swans $1.06 Giants $9.50
Sportingbet: Swans $1.09 Giants $7.50
Remember round one, when the Giants scored their first win over the Swans? That seems like years ago, especially given Sydney are on a nine-game winning streak that has claimed all the other top-four teams. The Giants have been much better lately with wins over Brisbane and Carlton, but this is another level altogether. Plus the Swans have regained Kurt Tippett and Ben McGlynn.
Key: One of the big reasons Lance Franklin has gone up a level since joining Sydney is his kicking for goal has become more accurate. He’s a beast of an opponent and a frightening prospect for any defence, let alone the GWS backline.
Tip: Swans by 50 points
Brisbane Lions v North Melbourne at Gabba 7.10pm
Head to Head: Lions 19 Kangaroos 26 drawn 1
Last clash: Round 9 2014 – Kangaroos 17.23 (125) bt Lions 6.2 (38) at Etihad Stadium
Tab Sportsbet: Lions $6.00 Kangaroos $1.13
Sportingbet: Lions $5.50 Kangaroos $1.15
The Lions start life without Jonathan Brown on the back of bad losses to the Giants and Fremantle. Their poor form is prompting comparisons with the horror days of the bad news Bears. Seventh-placed North are tracking well and have far too much to lose to let this one slip. And Brisbane’s home-ground advantage probably won’t count for much, given the ‘Roos have nailed the two Perth teams and Sydney on the road this season.
Key: It’s hard to be competitive when you don’t find targets and you’re not giving your attack enough supply. Two glaring reasons for Brisbane’s woes is that they are last in the league for disposal efficiency and inside 50s.
Tip: Kangaroos by 40 points
SUNDAY, June 29
Western Bulldogs v Melbourne at Etihad Stadium 12.40pm
Head to Head: Bulldogs 73 Demons 84 drawn 1
Last clash: Round 8 2014 – Bulldogs 15.9 (99) bt Demons 12.11 (83) at MCG
Tab Sportsbet: Bulldogs $1.60 Demons $2.35
Sportingbet: Bulldogs $1.65 Demons $2.25
Tricky to tip this one. After upsetting Collingwood for their best win of the season, the Bulldogs were hobbled by injuries and fell apart last weekend against Port Adelaide. For all their undoubted improvement, Melbourne have lost three of their last four. The Bulldogs narrowly beat the Demons earlier this season, but Melbourne are having the better year. Losing captain Ryan Griffen is a big blow for the ‘Dogs.
Key: Melbourne have an amazing 17-game losing streak at Etihad Stadium. Their last win at the venue was in 2007 – over the Bulldogs.
Tip: Demons by 15 points
Adelaide v Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval 3.40pm
Head to Head: Crows 19 Power 17
Last clash: Round 2 2014 – Power 19.14 (128) bt Crows 11.7 (73) at Adelaide Oval
Tab Sportsbet: Crows $3.25 Power $1.35
Sportingbet: Crows $3.25 Power $1.35
The Crows fancied their chances last weekend against Essendon and the loss was a bitter setback. Their win-loss, win-loss sequence goes back seven weeks and now they must make sure they bounce back with an upset win. While form counts for nothing in showdowns, this would be a particularly famous day for the Crows if they get up. Port are on a three-game local winning roll and would love to put them three games outside the top eight.
Key: Last week Bulldogs tagger Liam Picken could not stop Port star Chad Wingard from racking up 30 disposals, but he kept him goalless for only the third time this season and definitely quelled his influence. In the round-two Showdown, Wingard tormented the Crows and kicked four goals.
Tip: Power by 30 points
Collingwood v Carlton at MCG 6.40pm
Head to Head: Magpies 119 Blues 125 drawn 4
Last clash: Round 7 2014 – Magpies 14.20 (104) bt Blues 10.10 (70) at MCG
Tab Sportsbet: Magpies $1.25 Blues $4.00
Sportingbet: Magpies $1.25 Blues $4.00
It’s easy to draw a bead on the Blues – they’re out of finals contention and just cannot beat teams below them on the ladder. But what to make of the Magpies, whose promising season has stalled with losses to the Bulldogs and Hawthorn? This is one the Magpies must win, given they are now a game outside the top four and only one game inside the top eight. And they’d love to make it four straight wins against their most hated rivals.
Key: Carlton midfielder Bryce Gibbs is enjoying arguably his best season and this week’s five-year deal has taken him off the free agency market. His run and reliable disposal will be crucial if the Blues are to take it up to Collingwood.
Tip: Magpies by 20 points
