AFL tipsters’ guide

Jun 06, 2014, updated May 13, 2025
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Port Adelaide will be without captain Travis Boak for Saturday’s AFL home clash with St Kilda after the star on-baller was a late withdrawal.

Boak was ruled out Friday after failing to recover sufficiently from the ankle injury he suffered in the Power’s shaky win over Melbourne in Alice Springs last weekend.

Unable to train this week, the 25-year-old will miss the Adelaide Oval match along with speedster Matt White (foot), another casualty from the trip to Alice Springs.

“Boaky didn’t attempt to train, he got to training and was sore from running so we made a pretty quick decision that we wouldn’t need to push him to that point,” said Port coach Ken Hinkley on Friday.

“Matty White went out on the track and had a go, did the first bit of training, but said changing in direction was still painful.”

Hinkley was optimistic that neither player be sidelined beyond this week.

“Very hopeful it’s only one (game), that’s why we have to make that call now and ensure we don’t make it multiple weeks by playing them,” he said.

Midfielder Ben Newton, who has been in red-hot form for Port Adelaide’s reserves side in the SANFL, and versatile livewire Sam Gray, are Boak and White’s replacements.

Round 12 will kick off tonight with Carlton and Geelong looking to bounce back from significant losses.

The under-pressure Blues will face the game again without former captain Chris Judd, whose career is about to reach an unwelcome milestone – his debut game in the VFL.

The Carlton star will play for the Northern Blues this Saturday against Sandringham at Visy Park.

Judd has not played at a lower level since the first week of the 2002 season – his first at West Coast.

A week later, he made his debut for the Eagles and rapidly became an all-time great midfielder.

But the 260-game veteran is 30 and the Blues decided to be conservative with Judd’s comeback after his wretched season so far.

Judd missed the opening four rounds because of achilles tendon surgery. He only lasted a few minutes of the round-five game against the Western Bulldogs before limping off with a hamstring injury.

“He’ll give us a huge boost,” said teammate Andrew Carrazzo.

“But, in saying that, it’s his first game back after a long spell and, having only played five minutes of footy earlier in the year, it is going to take him some time to find his place and his role out there.”

The Blues regained Andrew Walker and David Armfield for Friday night’s AFL match against Geelong at Etihad Stadium.

David Ellard has a calf muscle injury and impressive first-year player Dylan Buckley is an emergency.

The Cats strengthened their defence with the returns of Corey Enright and Tom Lonergan.

They come in for Travis Varcoe, who has a family funeral, and Jackson Sheringham.

Hawthorn’s injury problems eased slightly with the naming of Cyril Rioli and Jordan Lewis for Saturday’s Launceston match against West Coast.

But David Hale is out with a corked quad muscle.

The Hawks also named Luke Lowden for his AFL debut and recalled Matt Spangher.

Jonathan Simpkin, Will Langford and Mitch Hallahan are the omissions.

Captain Darren Glass is back for the Eagles, who lost Josh Kennedy with a fractured cheekbone.

Brad Sheppard has a buttock injury and out-of-sorts forward Josh Hill was dropped, with West Coast recalling Mark Hutchings and Jeremy McGovern.

Former captain Dom Cassisi, gun midfielder Hamish Hartlett and rising defender Tom Jonas rejoin Port Adelaide for their Saturday home game against St Kilda at Adelaide Oval.

Jake Neade was dropped and the Power lost Paul Stewart (knee) and Andrew Moore (shoulder).

The Saints brought in Tom Simpkin, Tom Lee, Josh Saunders and Sam Dunell for Adam Schneider (foot), Rhys Stanley, Tom Curren and Arryn Siposs.

The Bulldogs named Jarrad Grant and left out Fletcher Roberts for Saturday night’s Etihad Stadium game against Brisbane.

Stefan Martin and Rohan Bewick are back for the Lions, who lost Trent West (knee) and dropped Jackson Paine.

Essendon are unchanged for their Saturday night game in Sydney against GWS, with Michael Hurley (back) still sidelined.

The Giants named Rory Lobb for his senior debut and included Stephen Coniglio in place of Dylan Addison and Jeremy Cameron (suspension).

Richmond have confirmed Dan Jackson (hip), Shaun Grigg (hamstring), Dylan Grimes (toe) and Reece Conca (groin) will miss Sunday’s game against North Melbourne.

The Crows have added Shaun McKernan, Cam Ellis-Yolmen and Luke Thompson to an otherwise unchanged squad for its away game against Fremantle.

Fremantle have named classy Freo duo Nathan Fyfe (ankle) and Stephen Hill (knee).

FRIDAY, June 6

Geelong v Carlton at Etihad Stadium 7.50pm

Head to Head: Cats 95 Blues 116 drawn 2

Last clash: Round 3 2013 – Cats 18.11 (119) bt Blues 15.13 (103) at Etihad Stadium

Tab Sportsbet: Cats $1.18 Blues $4.90

Sportingbet: Cats $1.17 Blues $5.20

The Cats, by rights, should be vulnerable, given they’re coming off a very un-Geelong-like 110-point walloping from Sydney. But the Cats remain top-four contenders – Carlton are borderline top eight at best and that looks like a stretch. The Blues’ upset loss to Brisbane underlined their frailty.

Key: The venue. Geelong have an extraordinary 11-0 record against Carlton at Etihad Stadium.

Tip: Cats by 40 points

SATURDAY, June 7

Hawthorn v West Coast at Aurora Stadium 1.40pm

Head to Head: Hawks 18 Eagles 24

Last clash: Round 13 2013 – Hawks 19.9 (123) bt Eagles 16.7 (103) at Etihad Stadium

Tab Sportsbet: Hawks $1.17 Eagles $5.10

Sportingbet: Hawks $1.17 Eagles $5.20

Hawthorn have won 15 out of their past 16 in Launceston and the trip across Bass Strait is timely. They remain riddled with injuries, caretaker coach Brendon Bolton is finding his feet and GWS went within seven points of a massive upset win last weekend. It should also help that they’re playing the Eagles, who have lost six of their past seven matches.

Key: Saturday’s forecast rain is great news for the Hawks, who will be without David Hale (quad) and have to take on Eagles ruck stars Dean Cox and Nic Naitanui. Hale’s absence will force Jarryd Roughead to spend more time up the ground.

Tip: Hawks by 30 points

Port Adelaide v St Kilda at Adelaide Oval 4.40pm

Head to Head: Power 14 Saints 10

Last clash: Round 17 2013 – Power 14.13 (97) bt Saints 13.14 (92) at Etihad Stadium

Tab Sportsbet: Power $1.01 Saints $16.00

Sportingbet: Power $1.02 Saints $14.00

A week after Melbourne nearly tripped up Port, the top side face another team from the bottom four. But the Demons are improving – St Kilda are not. The Alice Springs close shave might also prove a blessing for the young Power group who, until last weekend, had barely skipped a beat. Since their narrow loss to Brisbane on Anzac Day, the Saints have been in freefall and their average losing margin over four games is 75 points.

Key: Port’s greatest weapon has been their gut-running, defensively and offensively. The Alice Springs match was a hard struggle in humid conditions. The Saints must try to test the fitness of the Power players. Who knows what consistent pressure over a couple of quarters might achieve?

Tip: Power by 50 points

Western Bulldogs v Brisbane at Etihad Stadium 7.40pm

Head to Head: Bulldogs 21 Lions 20

Last clash: Round 22 2013 – Lions 15.10 (100) bt Bulldogs 13.15 (93) at Gabba

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Tab Sportsbet: Bulldogs $1.38 Lions $3.06

Sportingbet: Bulldogs $1.36 Lions $3.15

Brisbane’s upset win over Carlton was a major boost for a young Lions team who haven’t had much to celebrate this season. But they also lost ruckman Trent West with a serious injury and they go up against Will Minson. This is an important game for the ‘Dogs, giving the growing concerns about their form and profile in the league.

Key: The Bulldogs dominated the inside 50s by an astonishing 67 to 41 against Fremantle last Sunday and rarely looked anywhere near being able to kick a winning score. Once again, the Bulldogs’ attack was their achilles heel.

Tip: Bulldogs by 10 points

Greater Western Sydney v Essendon at Spotless Stadium 7.40pm

Head to Head: Giants 0 Bombers 3

Last clash: Round 17 2013 – Bombers 18.8 (116) bt Giants 11.11 (77) at Spotless Stadium

Tab Sportsbet: Giants $5.75 Bombers $1.14

Sportingbet: Giants $6.25 Bombers $1.12

Privately, many at Essendon breathed a sigh of relief last weekend with the big win over Richmond – a welcome result after several weeks of scratchy form. They should win this one, but will have paid close attention to the Giants’ impressive near-miss against Hawthorn. GWS remain unpredictable but, if they produce their best, it will push the Bombers.

Key: Essendon veteran Dustin Fletcher set the tone for the big win over Richmond by kicking a goal in the first minute. He was nearly best afield and the young Giants must try to negate his ability to set up attacks from deep in defence.

Tip: Bombers by 40 points

SUNDAY, June 8

Gold Coast v Sydney at Metricon Stadium 3.20pm

Head to Head: Suns 0 Swans 3

Last clash: Round 2 2013 – Swans 17.12 (114) bt Suns 11.7 (73) at SCG

Tab Sportsbet: Suns $4.00 Swans $1.25

Sportingbet: Suns $4.25 Swans $1.23

A week after the Crows were too good for them at Adelaide Oval, the Suns face a far bigger test at home. The Swans have hit top form with six straight wins, handing out some fearful beltings along the way. Their 110-point eclipse of Geelong last weekend caught everyone’s attention and they have become the team to beat. Gold Coast were in the top four two weekends ago – by the end of this weekend, they could be as low as eighth.

Key: Adelaide star Taylor Walker found the Suns’ defence wanting last weekend and kicked five goals. How are they going to cope with Lance Franklin and Kurt Tippett?

Tip: Swans by 40 points

Fremantle v Adelaide at Patersons Stadium 4.10pm

Head to Head: Dockers 13 Crows 19

Last clash: Round 18 2013 – Dockers 11.9 (75) bt Crows 7.11 (53) at Patersons Stadium

Tab Sportsbet: Dockers $1.16 Crows $5.25

Sportingbet: Dockers $1.20 Crows $4.60

Fremantle could find themselves back in the top four if they beat Adelaide and other results go their way. Ross Lyon’s men had a patchy start to the season, but have a good chance to register three consecutive wins for the first time this year.

Key: Classy Freo duo Nathan Fyfe (ankle) and Stephen Hill (knee) were both named despite injury concerns. They will be key figures in deciding the midfield battle.

Tip: Dockers by 40 points

North Melbourne v Richmond at Etihad Stadium 7.10pm

Head to Head: Kangaroos 68 Tigers 82 drawn 2

Last clash: Round 15 2013 – Kangaroos 19.14 (128) bt Tigers 8.18 (66) at Etihad Stadium

Tab Sportsbet: Kangaroos $1.28 Tigers $3.75

Sportingbet: Kangaroos $1.27 Tigers $3.80

Consistency is all that is holding North Melbourne back this season. They have played some very impressive football but gone win-loss, win-loss since round 4. It’s hard to mount an argument for why the trend would continue against lowly Richmond, who are bereft of confidence after being demolished by Essendon.

Key: Jack Riewoldt is an enigma but, as Kangaroos coach Brad Scott pointed out this week, a very dangerous one. Injured defender Nathan Grima has had the job on Riewoldt in the past but remains sidelined. Can Richmond provide their key forward with some decent delivery to take advantage of it?

Tip: Kangaroos by 20 points

MONDAY, June 9

Melbourne v Collingwood at MCG 3.20pm

Head to Head: Demons 79 Magpies 144 drawn 5

Last clash: Round 11 2013 – Magpies 17.20 (122) bt Demons 5.9 (39) at MCG

Tab Sportsbet: Demons $4.90 Magpies $1.18

Sportingbet: Demons $5.00 Magpies $1.18

In terms of crowd size, this is likely to be the high point of Melbourne’s 2014 renaissance under Paul Roos. Expect the Demons to be fiercely competitive – as they have been for most of the season. Collingwood regain Dane Swan, Luke Ball and Brodie Grundy as they seek to consolidate a top-four spot.

Key: Both sides showed relentless defensive pressure in their last starts – Collingwood crushing St Kilda and Melbourne testing Port Adelaide. Whoever does it better here should win.

Tip: Magpies by 40 points

– with AAP

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