Three cities await Olympic moment
Rarely, if ever, has so much been on the line at a single Olympic meeting.
When International Olympic Committee members gather next week in Buenos Aires, Argentina, they will be faced with three decisions that will shape the direction of the Olympic movement for the next decade.
At stake: choosing the host city of the 2020 Olympics, electing a new IOC president to succeed Jacques Rogge and selecting one sport to add to the 2020 program.
The favourites: Tokyo, Thomas Bach and wrestling.
Prime ministers, royalty, sports stars and celebrities will be part of the election extravaganza at the IOC session. The week-long meetings will have the flavour of a political carnival replete with last-minute campaigning, backstage vote-chasing and round-the-clock lobbying by spin doctors, consultants and strategists.
While most IOC members are primarily interested in the September 10 presidential election, the first big vote comes on September 7 with a secret ballot on the 2020 host city.
It’s a three-way contest between Tokyo, Madrid and Istanbul.
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All three are repeat candidates: Istanbul is making its fifth overall bid, Madrid a third straight attempt and Tokyo a second try in a row.
Tokyo has been seen as a slight front-runner, though the leak of radioactive water from the Fukushima nuclear plant is causing concern. Madrid – once counted out because of Spain’s economic crisis – has picked up momentum recently and now looks like a legitimate challenger. Istanbul has slipped following the anti-government protests and doping scandals in Turkey and the escalating war in neighbouring Syria.
With each bid facing political, economic or other drawbacks, the winner could be determined not for its positive attributes but for having fewer weaknesses than its rivals.
“There’s no obvious choice,” senior Canadian IOC member Dick Pound said. “Where do you go? None of the three is risk free. Probably somebody ends up backing into it this time.” Each city offers a different narrative. Istanbul would bring the games to a new part of the world, to a predominantly Muslim country for the first time. Madrid has most of the venues ready and would spend the least. Tokyo offers safety and reliability at a time of global uncertainty.
In the end, the decision could centre on which city offers the least risk. After taking gambles by sending the 2014 Winter Games to Sochi, Russia, and 2016 Olympics to Rio de Janeiro, some members feel it’s time to opt for certainty. Delays in Rio are causing serious concerns and the IOC is eager to avoid more headaches.
“We’re looking for the city which we can look toward to be the most secure option at this stage, given global uncertainties and the fact that we’re entering into a new era with a new presidency,” long-time Australian IOC member Kevan Gosper said.
“We’re looking for a safe pair of hands.”
With a majority required for victory, the city with the fewest votes from the 100-or-so members is eliminated after each round. In this case, the vote is expected to go the maximum two rounds.
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“I think the ultimate choice will be a matter of a difference of two, three votes, not more than that,” Rogge said.
Three days after choosing the host city, the IOC will pick a president who will lead the organisation through the 2020 Games for a term of eight years – and a potential second term of four years. Rogge is stepping down after 12 years in the job.
Making up the record six-man field are IOC vice president Bach of Germany; vice president Ng Ser Miang of Singapore; finance commission chairman Richard Carrion of Puerto Rico; executive board members Sergei Bubka of Ukraine and C.K. Wu of Taiwan; and Swiss IOC member Denis Oswald.
It shapes up as a three-man race, with Bach the favorite and Carrion and Ng the challengers.
Bach, a 59-year-old lawyer, has long been viewed as the man to beat.
“If you were handicapping, you’d have him in front, but whether it’s by a nose or a neck or open water, I don’t know,” Pound said.
The voting process is the same as for the bid cities.
Some of Bach’s supporters believe he could win in the first round. If not, things could get trickier, as it’s not clear where the votes will go in the next rounds. Wu and Bubka appear to be the most vulnerable of going out first.
If Bach is elected, he would continue Europe’s hold on the presidency. Of the IOC’s eight leaders, all have come from Europe except for Avery Brundage, the American who ran the committee from 1952-72.
Wrestling, meanwhile, looks set to end its seven-month limbo and win back its place in the 2020 Games. The vote will take place on September 8, with squash and a combined baseball-softball bid also vying for the single spot on the program.
Wrestling, featured in every Olympics except for 1900, was dropped from the list of core sports by the IOC executive board in February – a stunning decision that provoked an international outcry. The US joined with unlikely allies Russia and Iran in fighting to save the sport.
Wrestling governing body FILA responded quickly, replacing Raphael Martinetti as president and electing Nenad Lalovic, adding two new weight classes for women and enacting rule changes to make the sport more fan-friendly. In May, wrestling easily made it onto the shortlist for inclusion in 2020.
“I have no doubt it will happen,” Oswald said. “It was such a mistake. It has to be corrected.”
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