So there you have it.

After all the speculation, the build-up, the fear, the false hope and the grandstanding, Holden has finally given its workers the revised enterprise bargaining model on which they will vote – and seven days in which to consider it.

It’s successfully orchestrated a “no pay cut” spin, even though a three-year pay freeze is effectively just that. But let’s not forget that as recently as 2012, already suckling heavily at the taxpayer teat, Holden gifted many of its long-suffering workers a 22 per cent, three year pay rise.

It was clear then, as it has always been, that Australian manufacturing was in dire trouble because of high input costs, yet the decision-makers made their decisions and just maybe killed their own employees with kindness.

Now, according to the union, a “no” vote will guarantee closure by 2016, but a “yes” vote will safeguard the Elizabeth operation for another decade. Except it won’t, necessarily. That decision is still to be made by General Motors moneymen in Detroit in coming weeks.

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And there is surely so much more affecting that decision than the operation saving another $15 million a year. Ongoing renegotiations over the type and quantum of a taxpayer bailout, for one. And even if that’s finalised soon, the political terrain remains rocky and uncertain. The federal Opposition wants to rip half a billion dollars out of industry assistance. The federal Government wants to cripple fleet car sales (Oh, sorry Albo…close a loophole allowing drivers to rort the tax system! My bad.)

"The business community is in despair. Meanwhile, neither state Labor nor Liberal party appears able to slip out of first gear."

So, one way or another the federal election will have a pretty critical bearing on GM’s decision-making.

And Holden’s longevity will make or break Jay Weatherill’s premiership (among other things).

So, in effect, everyone’s waiting for the federal poll. Everyone’s in a holding pattern.

Julia Gillard’s audacious nomination of a September 14 election date was much-lambasted, but it did provide business and political stakeholders some modicum of surety, given the result was then considered a formality. Now, not only is the interminable guessing-game so beloved of our democratic tradition back on in earnest, but the result is a far less clear-cut proposition. We may even (whisper it!) end up with…another hung parliament!

The business community is in despair. Meanwhile, neither state Labor nor Liberal party appears able to slip out of first gear. Labor still hasn’t selected a candidate for the retiring Pat Conlon’s key marginal of Elder, traditionally a bellwether seat. That’s likely because they’re waiting for Annabel Digance to lose Boothby first, but in any case it gives Liberal candidate Carolyn Habib a helluva headstart. And what if Digance actually wins Boothby? It was unthinkable only weeks ago and still a ludicrous stretch now, but Kevin Rudd made a point of doing his only media appearance of last week’s Adelaide whistlestop at a primary school in the country’s most marginal Liberal seat. That was surely designed to send a message that he’s interested in winning seats, not merely saving them. (Although the message will probably prove too subtle for voters still waiting at the ballot-box for Labor, armed with brickbats.)

And where does all of this leave Weatherill? In January he rolled the dice, angering and alienating some of his closest political allies in a bid to govern and campaign on his own terms. Grace Portolesi, a friend, was demoted and humiliated. Paul Caica, a one-time schoolmate and factional ally, dumped. To add insult, it was insinuated he was worn out and seeking retirement: he wasn’t. I understand the only time he mentioned retirement, half in jest and half in anger, was in one of those routine cabinet meetings where funds and programs were being ripped from his portfolio in the haste to save, and the usually amiable minister was heard to exclaim something along the lines of “Well, maybe I should just f***in’ quit then?” Weatherill obligingly took him at his word.

Again, the underlying strategy would have been based on not merely a Federal Labor loss, but a demolition. And then, from the ashes, the Labor brand could be rebuilt, with Weatherill’s autocratic leadership the first beneficiary of the fledgling renaissance.

But now, no-one knows what will happen. Certainly not the Libs, stuck with their mythical barrage of policy tales bursting to be told. And surely not Weatherill, who having lost almost every genuine ally in state parliament has now seen his two closest political confidantes, Penny Wong and Mark Butler, instrumental in toppling a largely sympathetic Prime Minister in favour of one the Premier tells us is actively damaging a cherished South Australian industry.

Holden, the state’s last bastion of auto manufacturing, may or may not survive, and it may or may not take Weatherill and even Rudd with it.

But once again, after all the speculation, the build-up, the fear, the false hope and the grandstanding, none of us is very much clearer about where we stand, or where we’re going.