Poll has good news and bad for Weatherill
There’s good news and bad news for Premier Jay Weatherill in today’s Newspoll.
The poll, reported in The Australian today, shows the Liberals have a 56 per cent to 44 per cent lead over Labor on a two-party preferred basis.
The poll was taken progressively from April to June and reflected some of the disenchantment with the Labor brand; Julia Gillard’s exit from the political stage may have erased some of that.
That’s the good news for Weatherill.
The bad news is that the poll period did not include the fallout from the Debelle Report into the handling of a child sex assault case by the Education Department, its Ministers and staff.
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Weatherill has been under attack for his part in the affair and his response to the report.
The Liberal Party will be buoyed by the poll – mainly because support for the party has risen one per cent to 44 per cent, its highest recorded primary vote since the 2002 election.
Weatherill leads Opposition Leader Steven Marshall as preferred Premier – 41 per cent to 30 per cent.
Again, that is without taking into account any backwash from the Debelle Report.
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There is also a large (29 per cent) group of voters who remain uncommitted. Today’s poll won’t scare the horses in the Labor camp, but those who backed the axeing of Mike Rann in mid 2011 will be starting to wonder whether the right man was chosen as his replacement.
On the federal front, the poll reversals continue with a Nielsen poll published by Fairfax newspapers showing Labor and the Coalition tied at 50-50.
A month ago the same poll had a Julia Gillard-led ALP trailing 57-43.
With federal politics moving to an almost presidential campaign style, Labor will be relieved that Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has moved ahead of Opposition Leader Tony Abbott as preferred PM, 55 per cent to 41 per cent.
Will the revived Rudd’s popularity translate to a Labor victory? Nielsen’s John Stirton isn’t so sure.
“After the initial boost, no-one has ever carried it higher by election day,” he told The Age today.
There is another statistical precedent, however.
“All opposition leaders who’ve won an election from opposition in the last 40 years have been popular.
“They’ve all had net positive approval ratings.”
Tony Abbott’s is negative at minus 15.
The recent poll volatility at state and federal level adds strength to the constant refrain of most MPs – that the only poll that matters is the one held on election day.
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