AFL tipsters guide
Round 15 starts with a test for AFL tipsters – a Friday night Carlton-Collingwood blockbuster at the MCG.
FRIDAY
Carlton v Collingwood at MCG 7.20pm
Head to Head: Blues 125 Magpies 117 Drawn 4
Last clash: Round 2 2013 – Magpies 17.15 (117) bt Blues 15.10 (100) at MCG
Tab Sportsbet: Blues $1.85 Magpies $1.95
Sportingbet: Blues $1.85 Magpies $1.95
They’re normally huge, but this clash of the bitter rivals is gigantic. Eighth-placed Collingwood will skip three wins clear of the ninth-placed Blues if they triumph. But a Carlton win reduces the Magpies’ buffer inside the top eight to just one victory. For the Blues to win, they’ll need to tidy their skills – they rank 17th in the league for disposal efficiency. And such sloppiness could be fatal against the Pies in an expected tight scrap. Marc Murphy and Andrew Carrazzo are back for the Blues while the Magpies regain Andrew Krakouer but will miss Harry O’Brien in defence.
Key: Carlton defender Michael Jamison must nullify Collingwood’s man mountain Travis Cloke, who is capable of winning the game off his own boot.
Tip: Magpies by 10 points
SATURDAY
Greater Western Sydney Giants v Western Bulldogs at Manuka Oval 1.15pm
Head to Head: Giants 0 Bulldogs 1
Last clash: Round 5 2012 – Bulldogs 15.14 (104) bt Giants 9.8 (62) at Manuka Oval
Tab Sportsbet: Giants $4.35 Bulldogs $1.22
Sportingbet: Giants $4.00 Bulldogs $1.24
Surely, they couldn’t. Could they? Could the Bulldogs be first to fall to Greater Western Sydney this year? Losing to Melbourne last start doesn’t inspire confidence in the Dogs, who have the league’s best ruck, Will Minson, and a gun onballer, Ryan Griffen, in career-best touch. But apart from that dynamic duo, the rest of the Dogs are faltering. Which gives the Giants – despite their bad case of second-year blues and average losing margin of 70 points – a sniff of an upset in Canberra, boosted by key forward Jeremy Cameron’s return.
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Key: The Giants’ prime mover Callan Ward comes up against his former club and will be primed for a big day.
Tip: Bulldogs by 42 points
North Melbourne v Richmond at Etihad Stadium 1.40pm
Head to Head: Kangaroos 67 Tigers 82 Drawn 2
Last clash: Round 17 2012 – Kangaroos 15.13 (103) bt Tigers 14.15 (99) at MCG
Tab Sportsbet: Kangaroos $2.75 Tigers $1.45
Sportingbet: Kangaroos $2.65 Tigers $1.47
The Tigers carry a four-game winning streak, the Kangaroos carry the tag as the disappointments of the season. The Roos are 12th – three wins outside the eight. Much has been made of their bad luck, but coach Brad Scott would be alarmed that his side ranks second-worst in the competition for one-percenters. In contrast, Richmond are cruising: in sixth spot with nine wins already, the Tiges are finally finals-bound.
Key: Kangaroo linchpin Drew Petrie returned to form with five goals last week against the Giants and will need to reproduce a similar bounty for North to trouble the Tigers.
Tip: Tigers by 26 points
Brisbane v Gold Coast Suns at Gabba 4.10pm
Head to Head: Lions 4 Suns 1
Last clash: Round 3 2013 – Lions 13.16 (94) bt Suns 13.14 (92) at Gold Coast Stadium
Tab Sportsbet: Lions $1.48 Suns $2.65
Sportingbet: Lions $1.48 Suns $2.65
Gold Coast’s steady season took a hit last week with a five-goal home loss to Adelaide, and they consequently fell off the pace in their bid for a surprise finals spot. But the Suns will take confidence into this grudge match given Brisbane’s struggles. The Lions are only a win behind the Suns on the ladder but appear way behind in development. Brisbane’s leaky defence remains a concern: they’ve conceded more points thank any clubs except strugglers Melbourne and GWS.
Key: Brisbane great Jonathan Brown booted five goals in a two-point win against the Suns earlier this year and needs a repeat performance for the Lions to prevail.
Tip: Suns by 13 points
Adelaide v West Coast at AAMI Stadium 7.10pm
Head to Head: Crows 17 Eagles 20
Last clash: Round 17 2012 – Crows 19.10 (124) bt Eagles 11.9 (75) at AAMI Stadium
Tab Sportsbet: Crows $1.68 Eagles $2.20
Sportingbet: Crows $1.70 Eagles $2.15
An elimination final comes early for the 10th-placed Eagles and 11th-placed Crows. The losers slip three wins behind the top eight, a gap to prove insurmountable, while the winners stay in the finals race. Adelaide continue to rely too heavily on the spark of Patrick Dangerfield. And the loss of Brent Reilly to a season-ending shoulder injury reduces the Crows’ defensive options – which could prove critical against a savvy Eagles attack headed by Josh Kennedy and Mark LeCras.
Key: Crows ruckman Sam Jacobs. For Adelaide to win, Jacobs must break even with the best ruck duo in the land, Dean Cox and Nic Naitanui.
Tip: Eagles by 12 points
Geelong v Hawthorn at MCG 7.10pm
Head to Head: Cats 83 Hawks 67 Drawn 1
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Last clash: Round 1 2013 – Cats 13.15 (93) bt Hawks 12.14 (86) at MCG
Tab Sportsbet: Cats $2.15 Hawks $1.70
Sportingbet: Cats $2.10 Hawks $1.72
The modern-day heavyweights go at it again in a football purist’s treat: surely it’s the rivalry most watched, and admired, by fans of neither club. Hawthorn have won a club-record 12 in a row since losing to the Cats in round one to deservedly assume flag favouritism. Exciting small forward Cyril Rioli is back for the Hawks. But the second-placed Cats have won 10 in a row against the Hawks, a streak featuring eight wins by less than 10 points.
Key: Hawthorn recruited ex-Dog Brian Lake for this very reason: standing an opposition monster forward like Geelong ace Tom Hawkins. Can Lake win the battle and help end Kennett’s Curse?
Tip: Hawks by 7 points
SUNDAY
Melbourne v Sydney at MCG 12.40pm
Head to Head: Demons 92 Swans 107 Drawn 2
Last clash: Round 8 2012 – Swans 21.12 (138) bt Demons 5.7 (37) at SCG
Tab Sportsbet: Demons $17.00 Swans $1.01
Sportingbet: Demons $15.00 Swans $1.01
Melbourne’s heart-stopping win against Western Bulldogs last week released some of the pressure on the Demons – but only just. Sydney return to the scene of their memorable grand final triumph in fourth spot on the ladder. The Swans won’t say it, but they’ll be keen to not only defeat the Demons, but bank some percentage which could prove invaluable in deciding the top four come season’s end.
Key: He won’t decide the result like he did last week with a career-best four goals and a match-saving mark, but can Melbourne’s Jack Watts produce a top-notch game against top-notch opposition?
Tip: Swans by 80 points
Fremantle v St Kilda at Subiaco 2.50pm
Head to Head: Dockers 12 Saints 15
Last clash: Round 4 2012 – Dockers 14.8 (92) bt Saints 11.13 (79) at Etihad Stadium
Tab Sportsbet: Dockers $1.04 Saints $11.00
Sportingbet: Dockers $1.04 Saints $11.00
Ross Lyon meets his former club and will still be smarting from Fremantle’s loss in Geelong last weekend. The Dockers blew a chance to stake their premiership credentials, and also rise into the top four. Don’t expect another slip against the Saints, who were trounced by Richmond and remain anchored in the lower reaches of the ladder with only three wins. Matthew Pavlich and Aaron Sandilands are important inclusions for the Dockers.
Key: Can St Kilda break the Fremantle strangle and offer enough scoring chances to Rhys Stanley, in the absence of injured key forward Nick Riewoldt?
Tip: Dockers by 57 points
Essendon v Port Adelaide at Etihad Stadium 4.10pm
Head to Head: Bombers 9 Power 14
Last clash: Round 16 2012 – Bombers 19.13 (127) bt Power 11.11 (77) at AAMI Stadium
Tab Sportsbet: Bombers $1.25 Power $3.90
Sportingbet: Bombers $1.27 Power $3.75
Port are on track for the finals after consecutive home wins against powerhouses Sydney and Collingwood. But the third-placed Bombers away present another huge hurdle for the Power. Essendon’s continued on-field excellence, against the backdrop of their off-field drugs scandals, continues to amaze and they have the midfield armoury to damage the seventh-placed Port.
Key: Has another week in a drugs-induced spotlight worn away at Essendon? Has Port coach Ken Hinkley kept his players’ feet on the ground?
Tip: Bombers by 33 points
