If you can find the eight remaining winners in AFL round 14, you’ll be a very happy tipster.
FRIDAY
Sydney v Carlton at SCG 7.20pm
Head to Head: Swans 85 Blues 117 Drawn 6
Last clash: Round 19 2012 – Swans 14.9 (93) bt Blues 10.11 (71) at Etihad Stadium
Tab Sportsbet: Swans $1.30 Blues $3.55
Sportingbet: Swans $1.33 Blues $3.30
Sydney were shocked to lose to Port Adelaide – when the Power surged, the Swans simply couldn’t keep pace. Coach John Longmire will demand the loss becomes an aberration, a post-bye letdown. He can be sure savvy Blues coach Mick Malthouse went to school on how Port’s pressure undid the reigning premiers. Carlton, in ninth spot, need a big scalp, but the tight confines of the SCG suit their hosts most. Goalsneak Chris Yarran is back for the Blues – but will he be the sub again?
Key: Kurt Tippett’s debut for the Sydney was ominous in woeful conditions. Given clear skies against the Blues, the ex-Crow will stretch the Carlton defence to breaking point.
Tip: Swans by 33 points
SATURDAY
Gold Coast Suns v Adelaide at Gold Coast Stadium 1.10pm
Head to Head: Suns 0 Crows 4
Last clash: Round 23 2012 – Crows 22.21 (153) bt Suns 9.8 (62) at AAMI Stadium
Tab Sportsbet: Suns $2.30 Crows $1.62
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Sportingbet: Suns $2.18 Crows $1.68
A game between 11th and 12th on the ladder, with five wins apiece, but seemingly headed in different directions. Adelaide unravelled with heavy defeats to Sydney and Richmond before their bye, with coach Brenton Sanderson’s mid-year review finding gaping holes. While the Crows fall, the Suns rise. Megastar Gary Ablett leads a hard-edged side: Gold Coast are ranked in the top six in the league for contested possessions (third), clearances (fifth), tackles (sixth) and one-percenters (third). Karmichael Hunt is among five Suns inclusions.
Key: Patrick Dangerfield isn’t Adelaide’s captain yet, but he’s the spiritual leader. Can the Suns tame him? And will he line-up on Ablett – just to give us a treat?
Tip: Suns by 12 points
Port Adelaide v Collingwood at AAMI Stadium 4.10pm
Head to Head: Power 9 Magpies 13
Last clash: Round 4 2012 – Magpies 14.13 (97) bt Power 10.13 (73) at Etihad Stadium
Tab Sportsbet: Power $3.55 Magpies $1.30
Sportingbet: Power $3.30 Magpies $1.33
Can Port back-up on their best win in ages? The Power sit in eighth spot after their stirring upset of Sydney. Most pundits still have their doubts, but an eighth win of the season against Collingwood and surely Port are finals-bound. This is the classic ‘eight-point game’ with the Magpies a win ahead of Port on the ladder, but yet to secure their own finals credentials. Ruckman Darren Jolly (toe) is a big loss for the `Pies, while Luke Ball is a welcome return.
Key: Statistics support Port coach Ken Hinkley: Chad Wingard is statistically the best small forward in the competition: 22 goals, 22.4 disposals a game. Stopping him is a Collingwood priority.
Tip: Magpies by 17 points
Melbourne v Western Bulldogs at MCG 7.10pm
Head to Head: Demons 83 Bulldogs 71 Drawn 1
Last clash: Round 4 2012 – Bulldogs 13.10 (88) bt Demons 9.13 (67) at MCG
Tab Sportsbet: Demons $4.60 Bulldogs $1.20
Sportingbet: Demons $4.85 Bulldogs $1.18
A change of coach didn’t bring Melbourne a change of luck, with Neil Craig unable to produce a miracle win last weekend. The Bulldogs are only two wins ahead of the Demons but have been much clearer in outlining their rebuilding mission. The Dogs are being superbly led by Ryan Griffen, who has burst into elite status with the fifth-most disposals of any player in an eye-catching season.
Key: Melbourne must somehow curtail Bulldog ruckman Will Minson, who is feeding his midfield a constant diet of the ball – he has the most hit outs in the competition.
Tip: Bulldogs by 40 points
Geelong v Fremantle at Skilled Stadium 7.10pm
Head to Head: Cats 20 Dockers 9
Last clash: Finals Week 1 2012 – Dockers 14.12 (96) bt Cats 11.14 (80) at MCG
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Tab Sportsbet: Cats $1.50 Dockers $2.60
Sportingbet: Cats $1.55 Dockers $2.45
Will attack or defence prevail in the match of the round? Geelong’s often brazen attacking style meets Fremantle’s defensive strangle. The Cats are the second highest scoring side, while Fremantle have conceded the least points – in fact, a whopping 131 points less than the next best defensive side. Dockers coach Ross Lyon can’t offer his side a greater challenge to prove their worth as a premiership contender. The winner takes second spot. Not having Michael Barlow (jaw) and David Mundy (calf) makes the job that much harder for Fremantle.
Key: Home ground advantage. Geelong’s mastery of the often flukey winds at their home ground could be decisive – you can’t split the sides any other way.
Tip: Cats by 11 points
SUNDAY
Hawthorn v Brisbane at Aurora Stadium 12.40pm
Head to Head: Hawks 12 Lions 13
Last clash: Round 12 2012 – Hawks 19.21 (135) bt Lions 11.4 (70) at MCG
Tab Sportsbet: Hawks $1.03 Lions $12.00
Sportingbet: Hawks $1.05 Lions $10.00
How Brisbane came from 52 points down in the third quarter to beat Geelong last Sunday will forever remain a mystery. But the result has given life to the Lions, and the prospects of coach Michael Voss retaining his job. But there is no respite, with Brisbane making the longest trip in the league to meet flag favourites Hawthorn, who are seeking to equal the club’s longest winning streak – 12. Hawthorn have lost Grant Birchell (knee), Brent Guerra (back) and Max Bailey (knee).
Key: Can Brisbane stop Hawk superstar Lance Franklin, who has supposedly had a quietish year, yet had more scoring shots (58, for 33 goals) than the current Coleman medal leader Josh Kennedy (53 for 39 goals).
Tip: Hawks by 66 points
North Melbourne Kangaroos v Greater Western Sydney Giants at Etihad Stadium 2.50pm
Head to Head: Kangaroos 2 Giants 0
Last clash: Round 23 2012 – Kangaroos 16.9 (105) bt Giants 11.11 (77) at Skoda Stadium
Tab Sportsbet: Kangaroos $1.01 Giants $17.00
Sportingbet: Kangaroos $1.01 Giants $15.00
The clash of the disappointments of the season. The Giants have failed to fire a shot and are losing games by an average of 69 points. In an era of brands and image, their inability to be competitive is hurting the league. And the Kangaroos were meant to be contenders, but are 13th with just four wins. North’s meek loss to Fremantle last start confirmed they will miss the finals, with coach Brad Scott and his charges now playing for pride.
Key: Where is Drew Petrie? Has become a bit player with just 10 disposals last game and 12 the match before, but should return to form and help deliver a thumping of the Giants.
Tip: Kangaroos by 86 points
Richmond v St Kilda at MCG 4.10pm
Head to Head: Tigers 104 Saints 69 Drawn 13
Last clash: Round 2 2013 – Tigers 14.15 (99) bt Saints 12.10 (82) at MCG
Tab Sportsbet: Tigers $1.20 Saints $4.50
Sportingbet: Tigers $1.20 Saints $5.00
Surely it’s safe to declare the Tigers as finals certainties now? Two wins inside the top eight and with a kind run home, Richmond can’t miss out – unless they drop games like this. The struggling Saints were hardly compelling winners last week against Melbourne. St Kilda still must tidy up their ball use – no club averages more clangers a game, and turnovers will prove costly against the midfield power of the Tigers. Ruckman Ivan Maric (groin) is a major loss for the Tigers.
Key: Saint captain Nick Riewoldt, as always, holds the key for his side. A dominant game gives gives St Kilda a chance; a quite one, and they’ll struggle to kick a winning score.
Tip: Tigers by 51 points
