This week’s test for AFL tipsters starts with the clash of traditional rivals Essendon and Carlton at the MCG.
Head to Head: Bombers 111 Blues 121 drawn 5
Last clash: Round 21 2012 – Blues 24.12 (156) bt Bombers 8.12 (60) at MCG
Tab Sportsbet: Bombers $1.85 Blues $1.95
Sportingbet: Bombers $1.83 Blues $1.95
Shapes as an absolute belter between two clubs who genuinely dislike each other. The Blues have won six of their last seven as they get ever more comfortable with the demands of first-year coach Mick Malthouse. The return of Chris Judd and Eddie Betts only strengthens the lineup. Essendon have given fans a treat with the selection of debutant forward Joe Daniher, the 19-year-old son of former Bomber Anthony.
Key: The Bombers’ best forwards are their biggest ones. For the Blues, smaller – in the form of Betts, Jeff Garlett and Chris Yarran – is best. Which approach will kick the winning score?
Tip: Bombers by 6 points
SATURDAY
Greater Western Sydney Giants v Geelong at Skoda Stadium 1.10pm
Head to Head: Giants 0 Cats 1
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Last clash: Round 10 2012 – Cats 19.12 (126) bt Giants 9.7 (61) at Skilled Stadium
Tab Sportsbet: Giants $17.00 Cats $1.01
Sportingbet: Giants $19.00 Cats $1.01
Hard to see this being anything other than the ultimate mis-match. By coach Chris Scott’s admission, the Cats have rarely been at their best over four quarters so far in 2013. But so good have the Cats been in their best moments during games, they boast a 9-1 win-loss record. The Cats are confident enough to have taken the luxury of resting Harry Taylor and Mark Blicavs, among five changes. James Podsiadly returns.
Key: With the Cats to enjoy the bye in round 12 they are likely to leave little in the tank against the Giants. It could get very ugly.
Tip: Cats by 95 points
Adelaide v Sydney at AAMI Stadium 4.10pm
Head to Head: Crows 22 Swans 11
Last clash: Finals Week 1 2012 – Swans 11.5 (71) bt Crows 5.12 (42) at AAMI Stadium
Tab Sportsbet: Crows $2.75 Swans $1.45
Sportingbet: Crows $2.50 Swans $1.53
The Crows have an impressive recent record against Sydney, having won eight of their last 10 against the Swans. But it’s the reigning premiers who are deserving clear favourites – even though the match takes place on Adelaide’s home deck. Both teams boast strong midfields, but with the likes of Josh Kennedy, Kieren Jack, Daniel Hannebery, Luke Parker and Co, the Swans bat even deeper than the Crows. Jack’s brother Brandon will make his AFL debut.
Key: Crows midfield dynamo Patrick Dangerfield will play his 100th game, which should provide some inspiration, but possibly not enough against the disciplined and even Swans.
Tip: Swans by 20 points
Gold Coast Suns v North Melbourne at Gold Coast Stadium 7.10pm
Head to Head: Suns 0 Kangaroos 3
Last clash: Round 12 2012 – Kangaroos 11.21 (87) bt Suns 12.8 (80) at Gold Coast Stadium
Tab Sportsbet: Suns $3.70 Kangaroos $1.28
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Sportingbet: Suns $3.30 Kangaroos $1.33
The much-improved Suns are not without a shot here, having already beaten St Kilda and the Western Bulldogs at Metricon Stadium in 2013. But after a series of heartbreaking narrow losses, the Kangaroos did a number on the Saints last weekend in their most complete performance of the year. The clash between Kangaroos spearhead Drew Petrie and rising Suns defensive star Rory Thompson should be a beauty. Majak Daw is back for the Kangaroos
Key: Having dropped four games by less than a goal already this year, North simply can’t afford any more slip-ups in games they are expected to win if they are to remain the finals hunt.
Tip: Kangaroos by 20 points
SUNDAY
St Kilda v West Coast at Etihad Stadium 4.10pm
Head to Head: Saints 17 Eagles 21 drawn 1
Last clash: Round 8 2012 – Eagles 18.13 (121) bt Saints 13.13 (91) at Subiaco
Tab Sportsbet: Saints $3.55 Eagles $1.30
Sportingbet: Saints $3.20 Eagles $1.35
No excuses whatsoever for either side not to be breathing fire from the opening bounce. The Saints were very ordinary last weekend against North Melbourne, the Eagles even worse against Richmond. John Worsfold insists his midfield isn’t slow – a claim that Scott Watters’ men will be knee to put to the test. Nick Riewoldt could desperately do with some assistance from the other St Kilda forwards. The absence of injured West Coast captain Darren Glass will help their cause.
Key: Coleman Medal pacesetter Josh Kennedy was among the best of a bad bunch for West Coast against Richmond. The Saints aren’t exactly spoilt for tall defensive options either.
Tip: Eagles by 25 points
MONDAY
Melbourne v Collingwood at MCG 2.50pm
Head to Head: Demons 79 Magpies 142 drawn 5
Last clash: Round 11 2012 – Magpies 19.15 (129) bt Demons 13.9 (87) at MCG
Tab Sportsbet: Demons $17.00 Magpies $1.01
Sportingbet: Demons $19.00 Magpies $1.01
The annual Queen’s Birthday fixture is traditionally the biggest game of Melbourne’s season. But even the hardiest Demons fans could be excused for looking for something else to do on the public holiday. A hamstring injury to key defender James Frawley continues a horrific injury run for the Demons. It’s even more of a concern given Travis Cloke return for the Magpies and could cause Melbourne’s defence enormous trouble.
Key: The far-from convincing board support for beleaguered coach Mark Neeld earlier this week will be tested still further if the Demons suffer another belting in their year from hell.
Tip: Magpies by 85 points
